891
FXUS62 KJAX 102339
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
639 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES
- PATCHY FOG NEAR I-75 WEDNESDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TUESDAY
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS &
WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING, WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT PREFACES AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED, WITH LESS
THAN 0.1" OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
MAINLY OVER INLAND GA. FOG POTENTIAL IS OVERALL LOW TONIGHT
THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AROUND 5 MPH EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR BY NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO
THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST BREEZE. MAINLY UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHER READINGS LIKELY TO BE
BY THE COAST BUT ALSO INTERIOR GA THANKS TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE NEXT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND A MORE MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW FORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM OUT OF THE WEST, PRIMARILY AFFECTING INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PUSH
IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER SE GA AND FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR IN NE FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
0.15" FOR ANY SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER SE GA. OTHERWISE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS COMPARED TO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AREA-WIDE, BUT LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING OVER THE AREA WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR OVER SE GA LOCATIONS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE THE MID
40S AND LOW TO MID 50S OVER NE FL. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY,
BUT MAY BE HINDERED BY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
BY THURSDAY WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AFTER THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND OVER INLAND SE GA LOCATIONS.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER INLAND SE GA AND COASTAL LOCATIONS,
WHILE THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN NE FL/SE
GA AND NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES. CLEARING SKIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S OVER SE GA LOCATIONS, AND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND NE FL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WHICH WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA, WITH PWATS <1" ON
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2" TO 1.3" BY SUNDAY. THOUGH THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW'S PATH (EURO MORE NORTH, GFS MORE
SOUTH), IT DOES SEEM PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN ON SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT NEARS THE LOCAL AREA, THEN LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OFFSHORE. KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
REMAINS IN QUESTIONS AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
REMAINS. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RAINFALL RANGE FROM 0.25" TO
1.5" FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG SE GA INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH THE GFS HINTING AT HEAVIER
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE EURO.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY
COMING DOWN TO BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT SSI WHICH WILL
FOLLOW SUIT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE INCLUDED A SCT LOW CLOUD DECK AT GNV
AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH A SOUTHWEST MOIST BREEZE
OFF THE GULF, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT THIS
TIME. AREAS OF SHRA WILL START TO AFFECT THE REGION TOMORROW, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IMPACTS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH AT
ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL KEEPING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND LINGER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOCAL WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AS EASTERLY
SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 11-13 SECONDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SURF/BREAKERS INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE AT LOCAL BEACHES. EASTERLY
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY
DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DUE TO SURF/BREAKERS
OF 3-4 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS, WITH
PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS, TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE AS
GULF MOISTURE BRINGS RHS INTO 50S ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THURSDAY RESULTING IN POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS. THE RETURN OF
DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH RH VALUES IN
THE 20S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE 30S ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND NE FL AND SE GA THIS MORNING, WITH DENSER FOG OCCURRING IN
PROXIMITY WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 75 45 67 / 30 50 20 0
SSI 54 71 50 59 / 10 40 50 0
JAX 52 76 52 66 / 0 30 20 0
SGJ 52 74 54 66 / 0 10 20 10
GNV 50 77 54 74 / 0 10 10 10
OCF 49 75 54 75 / 0 10 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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