957
FXUS62 KJAX 111122
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
622 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INLAND NE FL THURSDAY MORNING
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS &
WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LINGERING VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 30F
OVER NE FL ARE GRADUALLY RISING AS RECOVERING AS WSW FLOW BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FL/NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND A COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HIGH THIN
CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
ARRIVED OVER OUR AREA AND EXPECT CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO THE MID
LEVELS OVER SE GA AS SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SW GA TOWARDS TOWARDS
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SW GA EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SE GA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, THEN THE SE GA COAST JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL TO MID/UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-10 AND
THESE READINGS WILL ONLY COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST, BUT
ENOUGH WSW WINDS 4-8 MPH SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG.
TODAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL PRODUCE AN INITIAL WAVE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SE GA WITH
COVERAGE MORE LIMITED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. THE WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED T'STORMS POTENTIALLY NORTH OF US-82 WHERE WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A T'STORM OR TWO TO FORM ALONG THE COLD
FRONT'S BOUNDARY BEFORE SUNSET, BUT LATEST TRENDS IN HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS APPEAR TO DAMPEN THIS POTENTIAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY 10-15 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
HIGH TODAY WILL BE OVERALL A FEW DEGREES LESS DUE TO THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FINAL
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ESE INTO I-10 10PM TO MIDNIGHT AND
THEN DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT OFF THE NE FL
COAST. WINDS TURN WESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT OVER NE FL AND NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS SE GA, THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NE FL WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH OF I-10 AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG I-75/SUWANNEE VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE EXITS INTO CENTRAL FL
BY SUNRISE.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE GA FROM COOL AIR
ADVECTION AND PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LOW/MID 50S FOR NE FL DUE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE LATER EXITING OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW RATHER QUICKLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE REGION AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
LINGERS IN ITS WAKE. WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE BOUNDARY
NOT BEING AS PROGRESSIVE, THE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY
BE FELT CLOSER TO THE COAST, ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, AND FAR INTERIOR
GA WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S. FURTHER INLAND, READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE MORE COMMON. A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND COASTAL
TROUGH, MAINLY OVER MARION COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PUTNAM/FLAGLER
COUNTIES. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER SOUTH AND EAST THANKS TO THE LINGERING COASTAL
TROUGH, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IT LOW 40S NORTH/WEST AND MID 40S
TO NEAR 50 SOUTH/EAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AS WELL, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FRIDAY
MORNING.
A PRETTY SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THANKS TO THE
REPOSITIONING OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING, WHICH WILL ALSO MIGRATE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UP THE COASTLINE ACCORDINGLY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL NUDGE UP ACCORDINGLY AREA WIDE, WITH
LOW TO MID 70S MORE COMMON INLAND AND 60S CONFINED TO A SMALLER AREA
NORTH AND EAST. MIN TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S INLAND
AND LOW TO MID 50S BY THE COAST & ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE, AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT, AND A RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER LOW
DIVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AND MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW'S PATH (EURO MORE NORTH, GFS MORE SOUTH) IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN, GUIDANCE IS STILL STARTING TO CONVERGE A LITTLE BIT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN ON
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEARS THE LOCAL AREA, THEN
LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OFFSHORE.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL, THOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL.
OVERALL, TEMPS TREND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND, LIKELY
FALLING CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR THE START OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
AFTER 13Z LIGHT STEADY SHOWERS WILL SHIFT THROUGH SSI UNTIL 18Z WITH
LESS COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FL TAF
SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 20-
22Z AS A LULL IN SHOWERS OCCURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SSI 03-06Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND DIMINISHING TO 6-8 KNOTS.
CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT SSI WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR CHANGES. POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT AT GNV AFTER THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE
GEORGIA WATERS WITH LESS SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS
AND WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND LINGER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOCAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM FRONT LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AS EASTERLY SWELLS
PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 11-13 SECONDS PRODUCING SURF/BREAKERS
INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE AT LOCAL BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELLS WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY, BUT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED
DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
-PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS FOR MOST AS WELL AS
SOME PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MULTIPLE "WAVES" OF SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR GA BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
HOWEVER. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT QUICKLY SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE 30S ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG WITH FAIR DISPERSIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN INFLUENCE THE AREA WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR I-
75 THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED DENSER FOG OCCURRING IN PROXIMITY
WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER INLAND
AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 45 67 38 / 60 30 0 0
SSI 70 49 59 47 / 60 60 0 10
JAX 76 51 67 45 / 40 30 0 10
SGJ 74 54 66 50 / 20 30 10 10
GNV 76 54 75 46 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 75 54 75 48 / 10 10 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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