644
FXUS62 KJAX 111754
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1254 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES
- PATCHY FOG INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS &
WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
ROUND OF MORE MODERATE SHOWERS APPROACHING FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA CLOSER TO AFTER SUNSET. PRE-FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST, GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL CALM JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR PATCHY INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP AS DECENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO MUCH BREEZE FOR ANY
DENSE FOG CONCERNS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGE, A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP FOR
PORTIONS OF SE GA AND COASTAL LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER MARINE AIR BEING BROUGHT IN WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW, COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER INLAND SE GA LOCATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 60S OVER INLAND SE GA NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS OF
SE GA AND NE FL. ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION IN NE FL/SE GA AND NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES. A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ALONG THE FRONT
AND COASTAL TROUGH. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S OVER SE GA LOCATIONS, RELATIVELY WARMER LOWS OVER NE FL IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS CLOUDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 60S LOCATIONS NORTH
OF WAYCROSS AND ALONG THE COAST, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG
SOUTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS IN FLAGLER AND OVER THE SOUTHERN LOCAL
WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
ASIDE FROM COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL WHICH WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST, PWATS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.
THERE STILL REMAINS A SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW'S
PATH WITH THE EURO STILL SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN PATH COMPARED TO
THE GFS), BUT IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THE GFS HAS SHIFTED ITS
TRACK A BIT NORTH. REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEARS THE LOCAL AREA
AND PUSHING OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS, BUT STRONG/SEVERE REMAINS IN
QUESTIONS AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT'S PASSAGE STILL REMAINS.
CURRENT ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RAINFALL RANGE FROM 0.5" TO 1.5" FROM
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND'S RAIN EVENT NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN NE FL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEGIN TO COOL TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES, LIKELY NOT CAUSING LONG-TERM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA SITES, WITH
GNV HAVING POTENTIAL TO DROP TO LIFR. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE
GEORGIA WATERS WITH LESS SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS
AND WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND LINGER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOCAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM FRONT LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AS EASTERLY SWELLS
PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 11-13 SECONDS PRODUCING SURF/BREAKERS
INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE AT LOCAL BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELLS WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY, BUT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED
DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON
A SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DIPS A BIT
INTO THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TO DISSIPATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PUSH SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH RH VALUES NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE 30S ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, AND THEN
ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN SE GA AND COASTAL LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH NEEDED RAINFALL ARRIVING ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR I-
75 TONIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED DENSER FOG OCCURRING IN PROXIMITY WITH
WILDFIRE SMOKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 46 67 38 / 70 30 0 0
SSI 69 49 59 47 / 60 60 0 0
JAX 73 52 66 44 / 40 30 10 0
SGJ 72 54 66 50 / 20 20 10 10
GNV 73 55 72 45 / 20 10 20 10
OCF 72 55 74 48 / 10 10 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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