293
FXUS62 KJAX 151358
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WINDY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FL AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA THIS
AFTERNOON. SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TRAVERSES
OUR AREA.
HAZARDS:
- WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TORNADOES
- LIGHTNING
- SMALL HAIL
- EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION. MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL. GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL
POTENTIALLY ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF EXISTING WILDFIRES.
LIGHTNING FROM TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
WILDFIRE IGNITIONS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
UPDATE
CURRENTLY MONITORING AN INTENSIFICATION TREND IN CONVECTION
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA, WHICH
HAS BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS
SQUALL IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH INCREASING RISK
OF EMBEDDED SEVERE SEGMENTS AND QUICK-DEVELOPING CIRCULATIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE
REGION.
THE MAIN HAZARDS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WHERE THE
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL
CERTAINLY INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
LINE WHERE BOWING SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MORE WIDESPREAD RISK, THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED QUICK SPIN- UP TORNADOES
ALONG THE LINE, ESPECIALLY AT INFLECTIONS ALONG THE LINE WHERE
AUGMENTED INFLOWS REGIONS (SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS)
FORM. THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUPPORTING BUOYANCY ALOFT, IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW
DEGREES WARMER (REACHING THE LOW 80S) THAN FORECAST, THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LENGTHY HODOGRAPHS MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED, IT APPEARS THE CURRENT POSITION
OF THE LINE IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE FASTEST CAM GUIDANCE AT
THE MOMENT (HRRR). DUE TO THE SLOWER MODEL BIAS, POPS WERE
NUDGED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL LEVELS SLIGHTLY EARLIER FOR
PORTIONS OF SE GA, NOW REACHING THE OCMULGEE RIVER AROUND NOON.
THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR WILL ALSO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND THOSE "SEEDLINGS" MAY BEGIN TO
SPROUT UP AROUND 10 AM ACROSS SE GA AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS BEFORE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT ARRIVES. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN SQUALL LINE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA,
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6-8 PM THIS EVENING.
A WINDY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NE FL AND PORTIONS OF
SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL
FOCUS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
(SUPPORTING THE HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT) NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH WINDS AROUND 50 KTS (60 MPH) ONLY 2K FT
OFF THE SURFACE. LIKELY TO SEE STRONGEST GRADIENT WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 1-5 PM WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE WEATHER TODAY AS A TORNADO WATCH MAY
BE ISSUED LATER AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STRONG AND POSITIVE TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW AROUND
1006 MB AND COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MODERATE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB OF 50-100M, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT GOOD ASCENT OVER THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A
MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT LIFTS UP NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICK UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH.
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES AND EXPANDED A BIT GIVEN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE AND TO COVER THE POTENTIAL TODAY. WARM TEMPS EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH A RECORD HIGH, POSSIBLY TIED
AT JAX TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ALL CAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A SQUALL LINE
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GULF COAST,
AND TIMING SHOWS IT MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 2-3 PM,
MIDDLE PORTIONS AROUND 4-5 PM, AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AROUND 7-8 PM.
TYPICAL LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT 50-
55 KT THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES BOTH AHEAD OF AND WITHIN THE QLCS SYSTEM.
THE 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF AT LEAST 25-30 KT ARE FAVORING SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE AND THEREBY ENHANCING BRIEF SPIN-UPS. NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
NOT STRONG ALOFT. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE POTENT TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER 2-3AM BUT OVERALL DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GA BY EARLY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
50S MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY, A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
RIDGING ALOFT ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHERLY
FLOW FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND OVER NE FL BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT AND ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL A
TREND TO CLEARING SKIES. COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO NEAR
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST IN THE AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL OVER INLAND
NE FL WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE APPALACHIANS INTO
EASTERN NC/VA AND COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
PRODUCES ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT OCCASIONALLY WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WHILE STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE SE GA
COAST AND NE FL WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND THE
NE FL COAST.
TUESDAY, AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
SOUTHEAST VA TO CENTRAL SC EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH OF
THE NC/SC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY WELL INLAND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO ONLY THE MID/UPPER
60S ALONG THE COAST AND RISE TO THE LOW/MID 70S WEST OF I-95.
TUESDAY EVENING, THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
MORE TO OUR EAST. THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F INLAND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BROAD RIDGING STRETCHING FROM ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS MIDWEEK, THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD FROM THE THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA ON SATURDAY AS TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN US DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DEVELOP NEAR BERMUDA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA SOUTH OF OUR AREA
MIDWEEK, THEN BEGIN TO NUDGE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BY FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER DAYS WITH
LOW POTENTIAL FOR REACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION) AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL PUSH THE GULF SEABREEZE WELL INLAND WHILE PINNING THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PWAT LEVELS 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES, WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEWPOINTS RISING
TO THE LOW 60S OVER NE FL AND NEAR 60 OVER SE GA. AS A RESULT,
OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FROM THE GULF
COAST WITH SEA FOG LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AROUND 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK AND TREND
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH PRIMARILY VFR CLOUDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z ACROSS THE AIRPORT SITES. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, SOME OF THE WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VSBY AS THIS SQUALL
MOVES THROUGH TODAY WITH MVFR, AND BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY.
VCSH OR PATCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM 01Z TO 06Z, WITH VCSH
THEREAFTER. PRECEDING THE INCOMING SQUALL LINE, STRONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS AT AREA TERMINALS. THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STILL SOME BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY AFTER 01Z-02Z TONIGHT.
MARINE
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TODAY WILL SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SEND
THE SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
THEN BUILD BACK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONCE AGAIN
MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SRF TODAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED, CREATING AN
INCREASED LONGSHORE CURRENT FLOWING NORTH. PERSISTENT MODERATE RISK
LIKELY FOR MONDAY AS WELL, BUT SOME ENHANCED NORTHEAST WIND MAY
SUPPORT A LOW-END HIGH RISK FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE TODAY
- LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CREATE
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
AHEAD OF A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS THAT WILL MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. WIND GUSTS MAY HELP INCREASE SPREAD RATES FROM ANY
EXISTING WILDFIRES DESPITE MINRH VALUES STAYING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS LATER TODAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CREATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 2-3
INCHES. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN ON MONDAY, BUT DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT FROM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND DAILY GULF
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL RETURN EACH
MORNING STARTING MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FEBRUARY 15:
KJAX: 83/2001
KCRG: 84/2001
FEBRUARY 19:
KAMG: 82/2018
FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
KCRG: 83/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 53 67 43 / 100 60 10 0
SSI 70 55 63 49 / 90 80 20 0
JAX 81 57 68 47 / 90 80 20 0
SGJ 79 57 67 51 / 80 90 30 10
GNV 81 58 72 48 / 90 80 20 0
OCF 81 58 73 49 / 80 90 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page