172
FXUS62 KJAX 160117
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR MARION COUNTY
- EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES
UPDATE
THE MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS EVENING WAS CANCELING THE TORNADO
WATCH EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE QLCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AND EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA IN THE COMING HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SE GA THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENTLY, A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) IS NEARING
INLAND COUNTIES OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND ARE SET
PUSH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 1-2 PM. AN ERODED CIRRUS SHIELD HAS
PROMOTED A QUICK WARMING AND MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW PROFILED AT 40-45 MPH IN THE LOWEST 20 KM IS SETTING
THE STAGING FOR A DYNAMICALLY "LOADED" WARM SECTOR. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS
THE UPSTREAM QLCS TRAVERSES THE SE GA AND NE FL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE FAVORABLE WARMING AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FORECAST (50-60 KTS) WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF QUICK-
MOVING AND DEVELOPING TORNADOES ALONG THE QLCS INFLECTIONS. THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH
ENTIRE LINE (AROUND 40-60 MPH) AND ENHANCED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
NUISANCE FLOODING BUT HYDROLOGY CONCERNS ARE NOT TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. THE LINE SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
1-8 PM, EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OF SE GA AND NE
FL TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF THOSE QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
BEFORE THE STORMS ARRIVE, THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR MIXING
WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE GROUND WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
WILL FALL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA, GENERALLY NORTH OF
WAYCROSS BUT THESE WILL NOT BE STRONG OR SEVERE, JUST ADDED
BENEFICIAL RAIN. ELSEWHERE, DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY BUT TRAP A MOIST AIRMASS NEAR THE
SURFACE LEADING TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TROUGHING DEPARTING THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY WILL LEAVE
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A TIGHT
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE TRAILING TONIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
CREATE LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING,
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER,
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ELSEWHERE. CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT LOWER
70S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY EVENING AT
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER, A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE COULD KEEP MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL
THE LOWER 40S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOWER 50S FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING POSITIONED SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINS
EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE, ALLOWING OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER FROM
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIR
SKIES, A DRY AIR MASS, AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW INLAND
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE AN ONSHORE
BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY INLAND
FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
THE FL PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP TROUGHING
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT SUBTLY TO WEST-SOUTWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOISTURE VALUES MAY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALAPAHA AND
OCMULGEE RIVERS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EACH MORNING BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BOOST INLAND HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ENOUGH OFFSHORE WIND TO AT LEAST DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AT AREA
BEACHES. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEPENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT INCREASINGLY HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER
CHANCES, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS SOAR TO THE
LOWER 80S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THEN ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH MID 80S
FORECAST ON BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DELAYED EACH DAY BY A PREVAILING OFFSHORE BREEZE, ALLOWING
HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE ON THURSDAY AND AROUND 80
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS ON APPROACH TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
THE SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, CLEARING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN
OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUD DECK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. GRADUAL CEILING IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
AFTER 15Z, AS WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
MARINE
A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STRONG SOUTHERLY- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE TURNING NORTHERLY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS RELAX THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WITH A STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT EXITS IN THE CHILLY SURF ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE BUT SOFTEN THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEP RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT A MODERATE LEVEL DESPITE A 1-2FT INCREASE IN BREAKERS.
FIRE WEATHER
- WINDY WITH HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
- THIS EVENING
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LIGHTNING STRIKES, WITH
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HAIL ALSO BEING POSSIBLE. GUSTY SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AREA-WIDE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAINFALL ARRIVES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE FAIR TO
GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES REGION-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH POOR VALUES
FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
FAIR TO GOOD VALUES FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FEBRUARY 15:
KJAX: 83/2001
KCRG: 84/2001
FEBRUARY 19:
KAMG: 82/2018
FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
KCRG: 83/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 53 67 42 71 / 70 0 0 0
SSI 55 63 50 64 / 60 10 0 0
JAX 56 68 47 72 / 60 0 0 0
SGJ 56 66 52 70 / 90 0 10 10
GNV 58 73 48 77 / 60 0 0 0
OCF 58 73 50 78 / 90 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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