832
FXUS62 KJAX 160557
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE FL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.
- PATCHY FOG INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING, AND FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST BY 12Z TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WESTERLY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL POST-FRONTAL
TROUGHING/FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT NEAR THE COAST AND
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IS TO BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
DURING THE DAYTIME, POST-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING SWINGING THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AROUND 1024 MB WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH, PUSHING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING, WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS AT 15-20 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CHILLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND HAVE BLENDED SOME LOWER GUIDANCE WITH THE NBM PRIMARY OUTPUT.
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER SC WITH RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST
INTO GA AND SRN AL. A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SOME ONSHORE/STRATOCU CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST FL COASTAL
ZONES, BUT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLEST OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THEN MID 40S AND
LOWER 50S OVER THE INLAND NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL, RESPECTIVELY. HREF OUTPUT, NBM VSBY GUIDANCE, AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDING SUPPORT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG THERE GIVEN THE MOIST
GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND THE LIGHTER WIND FLOW NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY, MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
FROM UPSTATE SC/EASTERN NC TO THE NC/SC COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOCALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY WELL INLAND
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF COOLER SHELF WATERS IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE SE
GA COAST TO THE JAX BEACHES AND THE UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE NE FL COAST, BUT WILL WARM TO THE LOW 70S OVER INLAND SE GA AND
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OVER INLAND NE FL WEST OF
US-17.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MORE TO OUR EAST. THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE SE GA
COAST NE FL WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F OVER INLAND SE GA.
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REFORM TOWARDS BERMUDA WITH LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND TREND
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY. A WEAK GULF COAST AND
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG/MIST DRIFTING ONTO THE BEACHES AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOW 60S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE GULF SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND.
HIGHS WARM TO AROUND 80F OVER NE FL ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 TO
I-75 WHILE THE COAST REMAINS IN THE LOW 70S WITH UPPER 70S OVER
INLAND SE GA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INITIALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL TREND TO LOW
STRATUS SPREADING NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST WITH
PATCHY FOG ALONG I-75 IN NE FL AND US-441 IN SE GA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BROAD RIDGING STRETCHING FROM ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS MIDWEEK, THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD FROM THE THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN NEAR BERMUDA WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO NUDGE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS TOWARDS THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDELY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE GULF SEABREEZE
SHIFTS INLAND WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE PINNED JUST OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, MORE
ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE GA WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS PRESSING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER DAYS WITH
LOW POTENTIAL FOR REACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION) AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL PUSH THE GULF SEABREEZE WELL INLAND WHILE PINNING THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE JUST OFF THE COAST. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER TO THE THE LOW 60S OVER NE FL AND NEAR 60 OVER
SE GA. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL INCREASES
FROM THE GULF COAST WITH SEA FOG LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE OVER THE
COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AROUND 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK AND TREND
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS TRANSITING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS CYCLONIC PATTERN AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND THEN INCREASED CHANCE OF IFR MONDAY BY 12Z. MOST OF
THE CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY 18Z-20Z AND THEN CONTINUED SLOW
IMPROVEMENT INTO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECASTING
VFR CLOUDS FOR GNV, SSI, AND VQQ BY EVENING TIME. SFC WINDS,
WESTERLY ABOUT 10 KT AND BECOME NORTHWEST BY 12Z AND BECOMING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY 15Z-18Z AT 10-15 KT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
EXPECTED FOR SGJ, SSI, CRG TODAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX TONIGHT.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BY MID MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL LEAD TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS RELAX THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WITH SOME INCREASED RISK
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS. SURF BREAKERS UP TO 2-4 FT
TODAY AS THE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK PROBABLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FILTERING IN SOME DRIER AIR
TO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH INLAND AND
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL TURN NORTHEAST
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS IN FROM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS POOR ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST LIMITING MIXING HEIGHTS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE MORE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND DAILY GULF
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
WILL RETURN EACH MORNING STARTING TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FEBRUARY 19:
KAMG: 82/2018
FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
KCRG: 83/2014
FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 40 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 62 49 64 53 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 66 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 65 51 70 53 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 71 47 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 71 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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