032
FXUS62 KJAX 161457
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY &
THURSDAY MORNINGS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING
- EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES
UPDATE
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
(1003 MILLIBARS) CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THAT WAS
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE (1019 MILLIBARS) WAS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING
WAS PROGRESSING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, LEAVING
BEHIND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING BUILDING OVER MEXICO WAS EXPANDING ITS AXIS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF (BAY OF CAMPECHE). DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS ERODING A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE STRATUS WAS THICKENING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 40S FOR LOCATIONS FROM WAYCROSS NORTHWARD IN SOUTHEAST
GA TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY, ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TODAY, ARRIVING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINA REGION LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE, WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NORTHERLY TOWARDS NOON
AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
SHORTER TERM, HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 3,000 FEET WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST GA AND ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH LOWER STRATUS CLOUD COVER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CURRENT VALUES AS NORTHERLY AND
THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FAIR SKIES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS OVER MOST OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TODAY, WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. COOL AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP INLAND HIGHS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE TODAY, WHILE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE IN THE 60- 65 RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
THE DRIER AIR MASS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WILL FINALLY
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
SKIES. A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS, WITH WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY,
WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
EXCEPT AROUND 50 FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY, MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO SHIFT FROM UPSTATE SC/EASTERN NC TO THE NC/SC COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY WELL INLAND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF COOLER SHELF
WATERS IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE SE GA COAST TO THE JAX BEACHES
AND THE UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE NE FL COAST, BUT WILL
WARM TO THE LOW 70S OVER INLAND SE GA AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OVER INLAND NE FL WEST OF US-17.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MORE TO OUR EAST. THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE SE GA COAST NE FL WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F OVER
INLAND SE GA.
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REFORM TOWARDS BERMUDA WITH LOW
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND TREND SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY. A WEAK
GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG/MIST DRIFTING
ONTO THE BEACHES AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOW 60S. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELDS WITH WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE GULF SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. HIGHS WARM TO AROUND 80F OVER
NE FL ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 TO I-75 WHILE THE COAST REMAINS
IN THE LOW 70S WITH UPPER 70S OVER INLAND SE GA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INITIALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL TREND TO LOW
STRATUS SPREADING NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST WITH
PATCHY FOG ALONG I-75 IN NE FL AND US-441 IN SE GA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BROAD RIDGING STRETCHING FROM ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS MIDWEEK, THEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US DEEPENS AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN NEAR
BERMUDA WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO NUDGE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SINKS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WIDELY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE GULF SEABREEZE SHIFTS
INLAND WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
PINNED JUST OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, MORE
ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE GA WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS PRESSING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER DAYS
WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR REACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION) AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAILY SEABREEZES AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE GULF SEABREEZE WELL INLAND
WHILE PINNING THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE JUST OFF THE COAST. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER TO THE THE
LOW 60S OVER NE FL AND NEAR 60 OVER SE GA. AS A RESULT,
OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL INCREASES FROM THE GULF
COAST WITH SEA FOG LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AROUND 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK AND
TREND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH
AROUND 15Z/16Z. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR AT 18Z AND EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECASTING VFR
CLOUDS FOR JAX, GNV, SSI, AND VQQ BY THE EVENING TIME. CRG AND
SGJ MAY BE PERSISTING IN A MVFR CIG BY THEN, BUT LIKELY VFR
RETURNING BY 03Z-06Z. SFC WINDS, NORTHWEST AT 12Z AND BECOMING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY 14Z-18Z AT 10-15 KT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
EXPECTED FOR SGJ, SSI, CRG TODAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX TONIGHT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA WATERS THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE, CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT
TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WHILE THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OFFSHORE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINA REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING ONSHORE
WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS THIS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
GEORGIA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WITH SOME INCREASED
RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS. SURF BREAKERS UP
TO 2-4 FT TODAY AS THE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTH AND THEN
NORTH- NORTHEAST. MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK PROBABLY FOR THE NORTHEAST
FL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO
MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FILTERING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15
MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ALONG THE COAST WILL TURN NORTHEAST THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS IN FROM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WEAK
TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS POOR ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST LIMITING MIXING HEIGHTS. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE MORE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND DAILY GULF
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
WILL RETURN EACH MORNING STARTING TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FEBRUARY 19:
KAMG: 82/2018
FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
KCRG: 83/2014
FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 66 39 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 60 47 64 53 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 63 44 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 62 50 70 53 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 67 46 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 69 47 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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