512
FXUS62 KJAX 161844
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
144 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY &
THURSDAY MORNINGS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
(1000 MILLIBARS) ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS. MEANWHILE,
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS) STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ALOFT...PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR AREA. OTHERWISE, RIDGING BUILDING
OVER MEXICO WAS EXPANDING ITS AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF (BAY OF CAMPECHE). DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAS ERODED A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY , WHILE STRATUS PERSIST
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z RANGED FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 50S BENEATH THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHEAST FL
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S WHERE GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF WAYCROSS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, ARRIVING OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINA REGION TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS THAT HAVE VEERED TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ADVECT A DECK OF MARINE STRATUS AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
COVER ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE CLEARING SKIES WEST
OF I-95 ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID OR UPPER 60S
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 50S.
THE DRIER AIR MASS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY WILL THEN FINALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH
WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S, EXCEPT
AROUND 50 FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS TO
BECOME MORE OUT OF OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE GULF WITH
BREEZY DIURNAL WINDS BUILDING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS DAILY
BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING IN FROM OUT
OF THE NORTH. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW SOME DISPARITY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER THE ADVECTION OF COLD DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
IFR CEILINGS AROUND 500 FEET AT SGJ WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST 23Z THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AT CRG SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR TOWARDS 20Z. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT GNV
THROUGH AROUND 00Z/01Z THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT JAX AND
VQQ WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 19Z, BUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
23Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT SSI AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS BY 02Z
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 04Z AT VQQ, WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 13Z ON TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 22Z,
WITH SPEEDS THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS BY 02Z, WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 5-10
KNOTS AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY 15Z TUESDAY, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE THIS FEATURE SETTLES OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINA
REGION TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHEAST FL, WHILE THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OFFSHORE INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. CAUTION CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHEAST GA SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE WINDS SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR
DIMINISHING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WHILE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING AS THIS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS ITS
AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE GA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT
PERSIST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
DIMINISH BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, WITH A LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL THEN ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A MODERATE RISK TODAY AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO LOW ON TUESDAY,
BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL INCREASE THE
RISK BACK TO MODERATE BY MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FILTERING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL
TURN NORTHEAST THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS IN FROM JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING
DISPERSIONS POOR ALONG THE COAST DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST LIMITING MIXING HEIGHTS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE MORE EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND DAILY GULF SEABREEZE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL RETURN EACH MORNING STARTING TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FEBRUARY 19:
KAMG: 82/2018
FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
KCRG: 83/2014
FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 39 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 47 64 52 72 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 44 72 52 80 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 50 70 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 46 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 47 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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