772
FXUS62 KJAX 162331
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
631 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON WED & THURS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY & SATURDAY
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE (1000
MILLIBARS) ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS) STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
ALOFT...PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING BUILDING OVER MEXICO WAS EXPANDING ITS AXIS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF (BAY OF CAMPECHE). DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ERODED A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY , WHILE
STRATUS PERSIST FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z RANGED FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 50S BENEATH THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHEAST FL
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S WHERE GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS TO
THE LOW AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, ARRIVING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINA REGION
TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT HAVE
VEERED TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT A DECK OF MARINE
STRATUS AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER ONSHORE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, WHILE CLEARING SKIES WEST OF I-95 ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB TO THE MID OR UPPER 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE COASTAL
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 50S.
THE DRIER AIR MASS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
WILL THEN FINALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH WINDS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S, EXCEPT AROUND 50 FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE OUT OF OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE GULF WITH BREEZY DIURNAL WINDS BUILDING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS DAILY BOUTS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW SOME DISPARITY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
HOWEVER THE ADVECTION OF COLD DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMETIME
BETWEEN THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT CRG, VQQ, GNV AND SGJ THIS EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH 02-05Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT SSI AND JAX. LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 13Z ON TUESDAY. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH AROUND 01Z, WITH SPEEDS THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY 15Z TUESDAY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION CONTINUES TO WEDGE
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THIS
FEATURE SETTLES OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINA REGION TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WHILE
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS THIS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
EXTENDS ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT
PERSIST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
DIMINISH BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, WITH A LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL THEN ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A MODERATE RISK TODAY AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO LOW ON TUESDAY,
BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL INCREASE THE
RISK BACK TO MODERATE BY MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FILTERING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL TURN NORTHEAST THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS IN FROM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WEAK
TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS POOR ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST LIMITING MIXING HEIGHTS. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE MORE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND DAILY GULF SEABREEZE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL RETURN EACH MORNING STARTING TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FEBRUARY 19:
KAMG: 82/2018
FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
KCRG: 83/2014
FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 40 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 48 64 52 72 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 46 72 52 80 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 51 70 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 47 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 47 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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