567
FXUS62 KJAX 171031
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
531 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED AROUND THE NC OUTER
BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY, CAUSING OUR
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TRANSITION FROM NORTHEAST-EAST TO EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, PROVIDING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
WIND SPEEDS TODAY, AT MOST, 10-15 MPH, BUT MAINLY 5-10 MPH. A RIDGE
ALOFT WILL ALSO ENSURE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY
SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CUMULUS AND HIGH
CLOUDS. HIGHS TREND TO GENERALLY THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR INLAND
NORTHEAST FL, LOWER 70S FOR SOUTHEAST GA, AND PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE COOL SHELF WATERS IN THE 50S.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 8 AM.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. MOIST GROUNDS FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL, LIGHT
WINDS, AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
RADIATION FOG AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY INLAND. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A GREAT SETUP YET FOR SEA FOG OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT WILL
MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR ANY CHANGES. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S, WITH SOME MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE FURTHER EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THANKS TO
A WEAK/DIFFUSE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, OPTED TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM ON WEDNESDAY - IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S, BUT EVEN WARMER AND CLOSER TO RECORD MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
EXCEPT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD AS WELL,
IN THE 50S THURSDAY MORNING AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ON FRIDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH A VERY
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE REGION. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND LATE NEXT WEEK, THE
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS AND TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY DOES LONG STRONG ENOUGH TO AT LEAST
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SOMETIME
BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF EXACT
TIMING, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH INCLUDES CHANCES FOR FROST/FREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR AFTER
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. WINTER IS
NOT OVER YET!
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT VQQ EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME OCCASIONAL STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY
AT AROUND 3500 FT EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT NORTHEAST NEAR 8 KT OR LESS THROUGH 15Z, THEN BECOME
EAST AND NORTHEAST 5-10 KT. EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 5 KT
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED FROM NORTH CAROLINA DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AN NORTHEAST AND
EAST WIND EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS THIS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK, WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK AT AREA BEACHES EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASED LONG
PERIOD SWELLS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF ABOUT 11 OR 12 SECONDS. THE HIGHER END RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS DAILY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY TO
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY. THIS WILL VEER WIND DIRECTIONS
FROM MORE ONSHORE TODAY TO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INLAND NORTH AND WEST ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD GOOD DISPERSIONS AND AREAS OF HIGH
DISPERSIONS. THANKFULLY, RH VALUES DURING PEAK MIXING WILL BE IN THE
40-50+% RANGE DAILY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL RETURN STARTING THIS MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THU, FEBRUARY 19TH:
KAMG: 82/2018
FRI, FEBRUARY 20TH:
KJAX: 86/1961
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
KCRG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21ST:
KJAX: 86/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 50 76 56 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 64 52 71 56 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 73 52 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 70 53 77 56 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 78 53 80 56 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 78 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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