452
FXUS62 KJAX 180609
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
109 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG/SEA FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
MAINLY FOR NORTH ZONES.
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY NUDGE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT, SLOWLY SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, AND
COMBINED WITH A LIGHT FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS NOT MUCH LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS INLAND SE GA, LOWER 50S ACROSS INLAND
NE FL, AND MID 50S NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE EXPECTED NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER PARTS OF
INLAND GA THIS MORNING AS WELL, AS DEW POINTS NUDGE UP A BIT WITH
THE SHIFT IN FLOW.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES PICK UP INLAND WITH
MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RIGHT AT THE COAST, CONTINUING
THE OVERALL WARMING TREND AS WELL AS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE GULF "SEA BREEZE" GIVEN THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE, THOUGH NOT A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS. DESPITE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SOME DIURNAL LOW LEVEL CUMULUS, STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND GA, WITH READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 80 LIKELY CLOSER TO
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER VALLEY. A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER
70S.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT AS WELL AS A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, WITH EVEN MILDER LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO HIGHER CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH VERY LITTLE IMPACTS AND RAINFALL
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS PERIOD WITH PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST AND
NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NBM POPS
STILL SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH SO WILL NUDGE DOWN A BIT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ZONES AGAIN WITH SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST, BUT TONED
THEM DOWN A BIT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING NOTED, WITH NO APPRECIABLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE
NIGHTLY PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY, AND SOME MID 80S FOR FRIDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAX TEMPS IF LOW TO MID CLOUDS HANG AROUND
LONGER DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. IN ANY EVENT, RECORD HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CLIMATE SECTION IS NOTED BELOW. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUDS. BUT THESE LOWS ARE STILL
NOT THREATENING RECORD HIGH MINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR SATURDAY, PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 80S WITH A NUMBER OF CLIMATE SITES POSSIBLY MEETING
RECORD HIGHS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL HELP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA CONSOLIDATE, AND
DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
ENTERS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT,
INSTABILITY IS A BIT LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE FORCING
ALOFT IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. NONETHELESS, WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ENHANCED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ADVECT
IN MID TO LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A INLAND FREEZE/FROST
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN FG POTENTIAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z, ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS NORTH AND
EAST OF GNV. IFR VSBYS AT TIMES WILL TEND TO SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH FLOW AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR SSI AND SGJ. WINDS
SUBSIDE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR FG ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH CHANCES
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER INLAND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SHIFTING FLOW
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK AT AREA BEACHES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY DUE TO AN ALONG/ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASED LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF ABOUT 11 OR 12 SECONDS. THE HIGHER END
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
TODAY, WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. SOME DECREASE IN
THE SURF/BREAKERS TO 2-4 FT IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY, AS WELL AS
SLIGHT DECREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY
- MINRH COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN INLAND FROST/FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THU, FEBRUARY 19TH:
KJAX: 86/1891
KCRG: 85/1975
KGNV: 88/1924
KAMG: 82/2018
FRI, FEBRUARY 20TH:
KJAX: 86/1961
KCRG: 83/2014
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21ST:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 58 81 62 / 0 10 30 20
SSI 72 57 74 60 / 0 20 20 10
JAX 81 57 83 60 / 0 0 20 10
SGJ 77 57 79 59 / 0 0 20 10
GNV 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 20 0
OCF 80 58 83 60 / 10 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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