910
FXUS62 KJAX 181038
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
538 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY & SATURDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF GALE FORCE,
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY NUDGE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT, SLOWLY SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, AND
COMBINED WITH A LIGHT FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS NOT MUCH LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS INLAND SE GA, LOWER 50S ACROSS INLAND
NE FL, AND MID 50S NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE EXPECTED NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER PARTS OF
INLAND GA THIS MORNING AS WELL, AS DEW POINTS NUDGE UP A BIT WITH
THE SHIFT IN FLOW.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES PICK UP INLAND WITH
MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RIGHT AT THE COAST, CONTINUING
THE OVERALL WARMING TREND AS WELL AS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE GULF "SEA BREEZE" GIVEN THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE, THOUGH NOT A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS. DESPITE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SOME DIURNAL LOW LEVEL CUMULUS, STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND GA, WITH READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 80 LIKELY CLOSER TO
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER VALLEY. A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER
70S.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT AS WELL AS A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, WITH EVEN MILDER LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO HIGHER CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH VERY LITTLE IMPACTS AND RAINFALL
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
WITH PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NBM POPS STILL SEEM A BIT TOO
HIGH SO WILL NUDGE DOWN A BIT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES AGAIN WITH SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT TONED THEM DOWN A BIT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING NOTED,
WITH NO APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL
HAZARD WILL BE NIGHTLY PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MOST
AREAS ON THURSDAY, AND SOME MID 80S FOR FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE MAX TEMPS IF LOW TO MID CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. IN ANY EVENT, RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
CLIMATE SECTION IS NOTED BELOW. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER
60S GIVEN THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUDS. BUT THESE
LOWS ARE STILL NOT THREATENING RECORD HIGH MINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR SATURDAY, PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 80S WITH A NUMBER OF CLIMATE SITES POSSIBLY MEETING RECORD
HIGHS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA CONSOLIDATE, AND DRAG AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT, INSTABILITY IS A BIT
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE FORCING ALOFT IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. NONETHELESS, WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ENHANCED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20
MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN MID TO LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A INLAND
FREEZE/FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 4 KFT THIS MORNING WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AROUND NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH REPORTED FOG AT VQQ
SUSPECT, AS USUAL. MAINLY MULTILAYERED CLOUDS TODAY AND VFR CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 05Z. THE, INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS AT GNV. WILL LIKELY SHOW IFR BEGINNING
AROUND 06Z. REST OF THE SITES HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF IFR IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME. FOR SFC WINDS, WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY WITH
FLOW AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR SSI AND SGJ. WINDS SUBSIDE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SHIFTING FLOW MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK AT AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO AN ALONG/ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASED LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF ABOUT 11 OR 12 SECONDS. THE HIGHER END
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
TODAY, WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. SOME DECREASE IN THE
SURF/BREAKERS TO 2-4 FT IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY, AS WELL AS SLIGHT
DECREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY
- MINRH COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN INLAND FROST/FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THU, FEBRUARY 19TH:
KJAX: 86/1891
KCRG: 85/1975
KGNV: 88/1924
KAMG: 82/2018
FRI, FEBRUARY 20TH:
KJAX: 86/1961
KCRG: 83/2014
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21ST:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 58 81 62 / 0 10 30 20
SSI 72 57 74 60 / 0 20 20 10
JAX 81 57 83 60 / 0 0 20 10
SGJ 77 57 79 59 / 0 0 20 10
GNV 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 20 0
OCF 80 58 83 60 / 10 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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