674
FXUS62 KJAX 181701
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1201 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG/SEA FOG EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD: DENSE FOG/SEA FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FL PENINSULA WHICH WILL INCREASE SW FLOW
TO NEAR BREEZY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. MULTI LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE A FEW VERY
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WILL KEEP
SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS THE
MILDER SW FLOW WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE WITH
A FEW SPOTS REACHING 80F THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MORE SUNNY BREAKS CAN
OCCUR.
TONIGHT: SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE SE STATES TO THE NW OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A MORE MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE NE GULF AND THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK AND POTENTIAL
DENSE FOG ALONG THE NE GULF THAT WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
ALL OF NE FL AND PORTIONS OF SE GA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS TO AID IN SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NBM PROBS ARE MUCH HIGHER TONIGHT FOR
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE 50-70% RANGE, WITH 80-95% CHANCE FOR LOW
STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE STILL
ON TRACK TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 55-60F RANGE LATE TONIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
INLAND SE GA WILL LIKELY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THERE ALONG WITH
THE INCREASED CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD: POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTLY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
RIDGING EXTENDING CROSS SOUTHERN FL. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND A FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND
ACTIVITY MOVES IN AHEAD OF FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. INLAND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS WELL, BUT WITH FRONTAL
TIMING READINGS COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INLAND FREEZES WITH
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
STRATO-CU AND DIURNAL CU CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
MVFR CIG IN THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS S-SW
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS AT
TIMES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. THE MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING BEFORE A LIFR STRATUS/FOG EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND ADVECT ACROSS MOST OF NE FL, WITH GNV
HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES DEVELOPING IN THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME, THEN
THE REMAINDER OF NE FL TAF SITES IN THE 08-10Z RANGE WITH MEDIUM
CHANCES AT SGJ, BUT LOWER LIFR CHANCES AT JAX/VQQ/CRG, WHILE SSI
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE LOW
LIFR CONDS WILL START TO LIFT IN THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME, BECOMING
MVFR 14-16Z AND FINALLY VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SW WINDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SHIFTING FLOW MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK AT AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF
12 TO 14 SECONDS. THE HIGHER END RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY, WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE
3-5 FT RANGE. SOME DECREASE IN THE SURF/BREAKERS TO 2-4 FT IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS WELL AS SLIGHT DECREASE IN RIP
CURRENT RISK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS AFTERNOONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT INLAND AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
- TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THEN TOWARD
THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THU, FEBRUARY 19TH:
KJAX: 86/1891
KCRG: 85/1975
KGNV: 88/1924
KAMG: 82/2018
FRI, FEBRUARY 20TH:
KJAX: 86/1961
KCRG: 83/2014
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21ST:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 79 61 82 / 10 20 20 70
SSI 56 73 59 77 / 10 20 10 40
JAX 57 81 60 85 / 0 10 0 20
SGJ 57 79 59 83 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 58 82 60 84 / 10 10 0 10
OCF 58 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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