777
FXUS62 KJAX 190119
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
819 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG/SEA FOG EXPECTED IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING. DENSE FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG I-75
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE COAST
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK OVERNIGHT AS ENOUGH CLEARING
OVER NE FL WILL ALLOW SEA FOG/LOW STRATUS TO PUSH ONTO THE GULF
COAST AND THEN SPREAD TO I-75 AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO THE DEWPOINTS, RADIATIONAL FOG WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO THE COAST WITH SEA FOG THEN
FORMING ALONG THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNRISE.
CURRENT TRENDS APPEAR A LITTLE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS, THROUGH I-75 WESTWARD APPEARS THE BEST
POTENTIAL. BUT, GENERALLY LOOKING AT AREAS OF FOG IN THE 3-5
MILE RANGE WITH SEA FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE JAX BEACHES WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG NORTH OF I-10.
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH.
FOG WILL LIFT INTO LOW STRATUS AFTER 9AM AND LINGER OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA
10- 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THINNING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS FIELD PERSISTING. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND REMAIN A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD: DENSE FOG/SEA FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FL PENINSULA WHICH WILL INCREASE SW FLOW
TO NEAR BREEZY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. MULTI LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE A FEW VERY
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WILL KEEP
SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS THE
MILDER SW FLOW WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE WITH
A FEW SPOTS REACHING 80F THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MORE SUNNY BREAKS CAN
OCCUR.
TONIGHT: SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE SE STATES TO THE NW OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A MORE MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE NE GULF AND THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK AND POTENTIAL
DENSE FOG ALONG THE NE GULF THAT WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
ALL OF NE FL AND PORTIONS OF SE GA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS TO AID IN SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NBM PROBS ARE MUCH HIGHER TONIGHT FOR
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE 50-70% RANGE, WITH 80-95% CHANCE FOR LOW
STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE STILL
ON TRACK TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 55-60F RANGE LATE TONIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
INLAND SE GA WILL LIKELY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THERE ALONG WITH
THE INCREASED CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD: POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTLY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
RIDGING EXTENDING CROSS SOUTHERN FL. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND A FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND
ACTIVITY MOVES IN AHEAD OF FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. INLAND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS WELL, BUT WITH FRONTAL
TIMING READINGS COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INLAND FREEZES WITH
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05Z BEFORE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST ACROSS GNV,
THEN VQQ, AND SGJ WITH TO IFR/LIFR/VLIFR LEVELS THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPACT GNV BY 05Z TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO LIFR LEVELS UNTIL 09Z WHEN VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS PREVAIL UNTIL 14Z DUE TO THE FOG. THE
FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL SPREAD TO VQQ AND SGJ BY 06Z THEN LOWER AT
TIMES TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS UNTIL 12-14Z WHILE JAX AND CRG MAY BRIEFLY
HAVE IFR CEILINGS 8-12Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE, DESPITE FOG THINNING, CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY AT
FIRST AT GNV WITH IFR LEVELS BY 14Z AND THEN MVFR BY 15Z BEFORE VFR
LEVELS RETURN BY 17Z AT GNV AND ALL SITES. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE AT
SSI AFTER 20Z UNDER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND THINNING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SHIFTING FLOW MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK AT AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF
12 TO 14 SECONDS. THE HIGHER END RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY, WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE
3-5 FT RANGE. SOME DECREASE IN THE SURF/BREAKERS TO 2-4 FT IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS WELL AS SLIGHT DECREASE IN RIP
CURRENT RISK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS AFTERNOONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
- MONDAY
MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT INLAND AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
- TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THEN TOWARD
THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THU, FEBRUARY 19:
KJAX: 86/1891
KCRG: 85/1975
KGNV: 88/1924
KAMG: 82/2018
FRI, FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KCRG: 83/2014
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 81 61 82 / 10 20 20 70
SSI 56 73 59 77 / 10 20 10 40
JAX 57 81 60 85 / 0 10 0 20
SGJ 57 79 59 83 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 58 82 60 84 / 10 10 0 10
OCF 58 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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