549
FXUS62 KJAX 191701
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1201 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FRIDAY FOR SE GA. MARGINAL SEVERE
T-STORM RISK SATURDAY SE GA, ISOLATED STORMS
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD: ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED
TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR NE FL, COASTAL SE GA AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON: BREEZY SW STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT
THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BREAK OUT WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS, WITH A FEW MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND NE FL, ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES AS BREEZY SW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH PUSH THE MILDER FLOW ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FL/GA BORDER NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
TONIGHT: SW WINDS WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TO 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THE MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE NE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AND ADVECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A
LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS INLAND SE GA CLOSER TO THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO EXPECTING MOSTLY JUST LIGHT FOG ALONG WITH THE LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THERE, WHILE SW WINDS FALLING TO 5 MPH OR LESS
ACROSS NE FL WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN SOME SPOTS, BUT MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 AND US
301 CORRIDORS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT AS WELL
AS DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE OCEAN
TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AS WELL TOWARDS MORNING. LOW
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S,
AND POSSIBLY ONLY THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS INLAND SE GA DUE TO THE
ELEVATED SW WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA FRIDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AND BY THE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES
WITH THE AID OF AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT CAPE, ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVILY
DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE FRONT, WITH A FASTER MOVING FRONT CONVECTION
WILL SPARK UP WITH ENOUGH TIME FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP. A SLOWER FRONT, MOVING IN LATER IN THE NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LESS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. INLAND FOG IS LIKELY
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, LEAVING
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY, BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO START THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 30S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE TOO HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STAY IN THE 50S, WITH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
A FEW MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD, OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AT 10-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT, THEN STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AREA-WIDE WITH LIFR VSBYS AT GNV/VQQ AND AT LEAST IFR VSBYS
ELSEWHERE. TIMING STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME AT
GNV AND 05-07Z TIME FRAME ELSEWHERE AND WILL LINGER ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME BEFORE MVFR/VFR CONDS DEVELOP AT THE END OF
THE CURRENT 18Z TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-14 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY
DENSE SEA FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WITH A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL AS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, SLOWLY MOVING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
BY MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY AT
AREA BEACHES THANKS TO BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME REMNANT LONG
PERIOD SWELLS. SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO
2-3 FT ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 2 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- MIN RH AT CRITICAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION ON
FRIDAY, AND WIDESPREAD HIGH DISPERSION LIKELY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHER CHANCES SHOWERS MOST AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY LEADING TO A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY AT TIMES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THU, FEBRUARY 19:
KJAX: 86/1891
KCRG: 85/1975
KGNV: 88/1924
KAMG: 82/2018
FRI, FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KCRG: 83/2014
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 82 65 82 / 10 60 40 70
SSI 61 77 61 76 / 10 30 30 40
JAX 62 84 63 85 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 61 82 59 82 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 61 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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