529
FXUS62 KJAX 200121
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
821 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FRIDAY FOR SE GA. MARGINAL SEVERE
T-STORM RISK SATURDAY SE GA, ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
THE PROBABILITY OF FOG HAS LOWERED SOME FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY DUE TO THE ELEVATED WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
INSTEAD, APPEARS MOST OF THE INITIAL FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALREADY
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TO NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER WILL ADVECT
TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9-11PM WITH LOW CEILINGS BELOW 500FT
AND VISIBILITY 3-5 MILES THAT WILL MOVE ENE TO THE COAST AND JAX
AREA WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT
ARRIVING INTO THE HIGH 301 AND I-95 CORRIDORS. THEN, AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL ACROSS GILCHRIST, ALACHUA, AND MARION COUNTIES WHERE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT DURING
THE PREDAWN MORNING HOURS, THEN PATCHY TO AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNRISE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH OVER MOST AREA AND A BIT HIGHER
OVER SE GA AREAS NORTHWEST OF US-84. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AREAS
WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW 60S SOUTHWARD TO I-10 AND
AROUND 60 OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL/SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH FROM I-10 OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG US-441 AND WESTWARD TONIGHT.
FRIDAY, THE FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 9-10AM, BUT LOW STRATUS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO LIFT AS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MIDDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME BREEZY
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW, BUT
WILL SLOW DOWN BEFORE REACHING THE ALTAMAHA BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA, BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AN ISOLATED T'STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NW OF ALMA, BUT MORE LIKELY WEST OF OUR INLAND SE GA
COUNTIES. HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION) WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO DAILY
RECORD HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S OVER INLAND NE FL AND LOW 80S OVER
INLAND SE GA WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD: ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED
TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR NE FL, COASTAL SE GA AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON: BREEZY SW STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT
THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BREAK OUT WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS, WITH A FEW MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND NE FL, ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES AS BREEZY SW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH PUSH THE MILDER FLOW ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FL/GA BORDER NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
TONIGHT: SW WINDS WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TO 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THE MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE NE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AND ADVECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A
LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS INLAND SE GA CLOSER TO THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO EXPECTING MOSTLY JUST LIGHT FOG ALONG WITH THE LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THERE, WHILE SW WINDS FALLING TO 5 MPH OR LESS
ACROSS NE FL WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN SOME SPOTS, BUT MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 AND US
301 CORRIDORS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT AS WELL
AS DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE OCEAN
TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AS WELL TOWARDS MORNING. LOW
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S,
AND POSSIBLY ONLY THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS INLAND SE GA DUE TO THE
ELEVATED SW WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD: THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE GA. AN
INLAND FREEZE OVER SE GA SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL
SATURDAY, AS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. WHILE FL
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY ON SATURDAY, SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND AFFECT SE GA.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
NIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SE GA,
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS NE FL.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS,
BUT FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO AROUND FREEZING OVER INLAND SE GA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MID OVER
INLAND NE FL. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT, SO FROST
IS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, LEAVING
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY, BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO START THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 30S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE TOO HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STAY IN THE 50S, WITH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR/VLIFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z DUE TO FOG AND LOW
STRATUS LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT ALL SITES UNTIL 12-14Z.
INLAND TAF SITES WILL SEE PREVAILING LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS BY 05-07Z
AS FOG SPREADS INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST, THEN SPREAD IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG TO THE DUVAL AND COASTAL TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY 14Z, BUT CEILINGS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO LIFT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CEILINGS BY 14/15Z AND THEN
MVFR BY 16/17Z BEFORE CEILINGS RISE ABOVE VFR LEVELS BY 18Z. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS FROM 16Z INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRING VCSH COVERAGE TO SSI AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY
DENSE SEA FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WITH A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL AS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, SLOWLY MOVING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
BY MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY AT
AREA BEACHES THANKS TO BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME REMNANT LONG
PERIOD SWELLS. SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO
2-3 FT ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 2 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- MIN RH AT CRITICAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION ON
FRIDAY, AND WIDESPREAD HIGH DISPERSION LIKELY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHER CHANCES SHOWERS MOST AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY LEADING TO A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY AT TIMES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THU, FEBRUARY 19:
KJAX: 86/1891
KCRG: 85/1975
KGNV: 88/1924
KAMG: 82/2018
FRI, FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KCRG: 83/2014
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 64 82 65 82 / 10 60 40 70
SSI 61 77 61 76 / 10 30 30 40
JAX 62 85 63 85 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 60 83 59 82 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 61 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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