080
FXUS62 KJAX 201032
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
532 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SE GA.
MARGINAL SEVERE T-STORM RISK SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT SE GA,
ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- FREEZE AND FROST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF TONIGHT: A DEEP AND FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. RECENT GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS PUSHING
GRADUALLY EAST WITH TIME, WHILE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PASS OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA. WITH THE WINDS BECOMING A BIT LIGHTER, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. LIKE PRIOR NIGHTS, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST FL WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAKER,
BUT STILL ARE ABOUT 12-15 KT AT ABOUT 400-500 FT PER VWP FROM KJAX
AND KVAX RADARS. IN ADDITION, SOME SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR (60-65) OVERRIDES THE
COOLER WATERS WITH SSTS ABOUT 55-60. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S, AND POSSIBLY ONLY THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS INLAND SE GA DUE TO THE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR TODAY, CLOUDY SKIES WITH FOG THIS MORNING AND A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND POSSIBLY SUWANNEE VALLEY
AREA. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE, MIXING WILL SCOUR OUR THE
REMAINING LOW STRATUS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BREEZY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW, BUT WILL SLOW DOWN BEFORE REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE GA, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH HALF OF
ZONES THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
FORECAST OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO ABOVE
500 TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION) WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S OVER INLAND NE FL AND
LOWER 80S OVER INLAND SE GA WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE
COAST.
TONIGHT, ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA, AND PERHAPS A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH OF ALMA GA
AROUND THE 6 PM-9PM TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE THE SHOWER CHANCES MAY
PERSIST AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH WHILE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE FORMS OVER CENTRAL
GA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FOLLOWED SOME THE RECENT GUIDANCE TO SHOW THIS, AND ALSO PUSHING FOG
TO THE COASTAL WATERS. PER HREF AND SREF, THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
FOG FOR NORTHEAST FL WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER, WHICH IS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THAT THE SFC WINDS WILL BE A TOUCH WEAKER. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE VERY MILD, ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 60-65, WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST
GA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE GA. AN INLAND FREEZE
OVER SE GA SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL
SATURDAY, AS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. WHILE FL
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY ON SATURDAY, SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND AFFECT SE GA. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING FOG IN OFF THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE I75 CORRIDOR.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
NIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SE GA,
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS NE FL.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY, WITH HIGHS EARLY, BUT FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND
FREEZING OVER INLAND SE GA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MID OVER INLAND NE FL.
THE WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT, SO FROST IS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD: FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY, AND WILL
BECOME CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. INLAND FREEZES WITH FROST ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A NEAR NORMAL DAY WEDNESDAY, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
A MIX OF LOW CIGS AROUND THE AREA AT 12Z WITH IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES
FOR GNV, AND FURTHER NORTHEAST TO THE JAX AREA AND SSI SOME IFR AND
MVFR CIGS. VSBY AT TAFS WILL NOT BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN UP TO 6-10 KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING PROVIDING
ENOUGH MIXING AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR FOR
THE TAFS BY ABOUT 16Z-18Z WITH VFR CLOUDS LASTING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER
BEGINNING ABOUT 06Z-09Z. SFC WINDS, SOUTHWEST WINDS OF ABOUT 5-10
KNOTS BUT BECOME BREEZY 11-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20-23 KNOTS FROM
16Z INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRING VCSH
COVERAGE TO SSI AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY
DENSE SEA FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, SLOWLY MOVING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
BY MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY THANKS TO
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
SURF/BREAKERS OF 1-3 FT TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO AROUND 2 FEET
OR LESS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND AGAIN THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD.
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO REGION FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS AROUND THE I75
CORRIDOR. A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRI, FEBRUARY 20:
KJAX: 86/1961
KCRG: 83/2014
KGNV: 86/2019
KAMG: 83/2014
SAT, FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 64 82 53 / 50 40 80 80
SSI 78 62 79 56 / 30 20 50 80
JAX 87 61 87 57 / 10 0 20 60
SGJ 84 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 50
GNV 86 59 85 59 / 0 0 10 60
OCF 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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