737
FXUS62 KJAX 211044
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
544 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD: STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH.
- GALE WATCHES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
- A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD: LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR I-75. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN FL WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION
FOR DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE I75
CORRIDOR OF NE FL.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS REGION MID AFTERNOON, AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER SE GA,
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND UNDER AN
UPPER WAVE.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH 90
OVER INTERIOR NE FL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL LARGELY ADVECT
IN AFTER THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS (SUNDAY - MONDAY NIGHT:
- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
- SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & WIND CHILLS FALLING TO THE
20S
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY INCREASE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ON MONDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY
NIGHT
DEEP TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD, DRIVING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SURFACE-BASED
CAPE INCREASING TO THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS,
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY NOON. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS, ALLOWING SKIES
TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
AND FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL ASSIST
IN TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.
BOMBOGENESIS IS FORECAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE PARALLELS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS AND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE OZARKS, EASTERN TEXAS,
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LIGHT ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS
NOW LIKELY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE LOWS ELSEWHERE
GENERALLY FALL TO THE MID 30S TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WIND
SPEEDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH, WITH FREQUENT 20-30 MPH GUSTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 50-55
RANGE ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS PLUNGING THROUGH THE TEENS INLAND AND
LOWER 20S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT 30-40 MPH GUSTS TO
CREATE POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS, DENOTING AN INCREASING
WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR AREA.
WEAKENING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A LOOSENING
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL YIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. A HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXTENDING TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 20S, LIKELY PROMPTING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD:
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT
- WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK
DEEP TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY, LEAVING BEHIND A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY DOWNSTREAM
OF A QUICKLY APPROACHING TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. AT THE
SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SETTLES OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
WITH THIS FEATURE THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST FL
COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND 20S
WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR AREA DESPITE DECREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS,
WITH LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST
AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, DECOUPLING
WINDS EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL CREATE RADIATIONAL COOLING,
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND AREAS
TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS, WHERE LOWS MAY FALL TO THE MID 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN QUICKLY MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD
APPROACH LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY, WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WHILE COLDER SHELF WATERS KEEP COASTAL
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL ON THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AS PWATS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. MODEL BLENDS CURRENTLY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRAVERSING OUR REGION O THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
LOWS IN THE 50S REGION-WIDE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 14Z DUE LOW STRATUS CEILINGS OF 500-900 FEET AND
LOCALLY DENSE FOG. CEILINGS WILL THEN LIFT TO MVFR BEFORE 16Z,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 18Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD APPROACH THE SSI TERMINAL TOWARDS 23Z.
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z-04Z AT SSI WITHIN PREVAILING MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INDICATE VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 00Z AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5- 10 KNOTS
THROUGH AROUND 14Z WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.
SPEEDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TOWARDS 00Z.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL
CAROLINA REGION TONIGHT, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS AHEAD OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THEN PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GALE WATCHES POSTED
FOR FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PARALLEL THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS WHILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING LOCALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY THANKS TO
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
SURF/BREAKERS OF 1-3 FT TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO AROUND 2
FEET OR LESS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY INLAND
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GOOD TO MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES
ELSEWHERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN MIGRATE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY
CREATING VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AREA-WIDE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD ELEVATED NIGHTTIME
DISPERSION VALUES NEARLY AREA-WIDE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY, AS BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS COMBINE WITH CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND DRYING SOIL CONDITIONS. STRONG TRANSPORT SPEEDS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL CREATE HIGH TO VERY HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL THEN DIMINISH, WITH LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG AND WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS
ON SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SUPER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF SMOLDERING FIRES, ESPECIALLY ONES PRODUCING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SMOKE. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND A
POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE FORECAST FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON:
SAT, FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 53 61 30 / 60 90 20 0
SSI 76 57 67 34 / 30 70 40 0
JAX 86 60 70 33 / 10 50 50 0
SGJ 84 61 72 36 / 0 40 60 0
GNV 85 62 71 33 / 0 50 40 0
OCF 85 61 72 33 / 0 40 50 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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