581
FXUS62 KJAX 211248
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
748 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALIZED DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FL
THROUGH 9AM
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
&. PRIMARY HAZARD: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH
- GALE WATCHES FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SUN AFTERNOON & TUES AFTERNOON. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MON AFTERNOON
- LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT & EARLY MON FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & LOW WIND CHILL VALUES MON NIGHT & EARLY TUES
UPDATE
AREA WEBCAMS AND VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL
AROUND 9 AM BEFORE LIFTING TO STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERING
OUT LATER THIS MORNING.
WE'RE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRANSLATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA ALONG A
LEFTOVER FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE
THAT FRONTAL FEATURE WILL MOISTEN PREVIOUSLY DRY LAYERS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING A MODESTLY DESTABILIZED WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SE GA. FURTHER SOUTH A MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP
THE "LID" ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION ORGANIZING AND
TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A MESSY LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS INTO SE GA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
OTHERWISE, THE WARM START TO THE DAY (ONLY A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES) WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER RECORD
DAY OF WARMTH WITH PREFRONTAL MIXING BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD: LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR I75. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN FL WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE I75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS REGION MID AFTERNOON, AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER SE GA, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND UNDER AN UPPER WAVE.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH 90 OVER
INTERIOR NE FL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, AS COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL LARGELY ADVECT IN AFTER THIS
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS (SUNDAY - MONDAY NIGHT:
- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
- SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & WIND CHILLS FALLING TO THE 20S
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY INCREASE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ON MONDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT
DEEP TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD, DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE INCREASING TO THE
250-500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY NOON. A COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS, ALLOWING
SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG AND FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL
ASSIST IN TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.
BOMBOGENESIS IS FORECAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
PARALLELS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS AND ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE OZARKS, EASTERN TEXAS, AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LIGHT ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS NOW LIKELY FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE LOWS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY FALL TO THE MID
30S TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH,
WITH FREQUENT 20-30 MPH GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S DURING THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 50-55 RANGE ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS PLUNGING THROUGH THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER 20S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25
MPH WITH FREQUENT 30-40 MPH GUSTS TO CREATE POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, DENOTING AN INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR AREA.
WEAKENING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A LOOSENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL YIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 20S,
LIKELY PROMPTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD:
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT
- WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK
DEEP TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY, LEAVING BEHIND A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL BY
MIDWEEK AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A QUICKLY
APPROACHING TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES OVER THE FL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN PUSHING
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY
SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA DESPITE DECREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS, WITH LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
FORECAST AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, DECOUPLING WINDS
EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL CREATE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND AREAS TO POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE
LOWS MAY FALL TO THE MID 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH LATE FEBRUARY
CLIMATOLOGY, WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S,
WHILE COLDER SHELF WATERS KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL ON THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MAINLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AS PWATS BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODEL
BLENDS CURRENTLY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAVERSING OUR REGION O
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWER 80S
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S REGION-WIDE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 14Z DUE LOW STRATUS CEILINGS OF 500-900 FEET AND
LOCALLY DENSE FOG. CEILINGS WILL THEN LIFT TO MVFR BEFORE 16Z, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 18Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD APPROACH THE SSI TERMINAL TOWARDS 23Z. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z-04Z AT SSI
WITHIN PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE WAS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 00Z AT THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-
10 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 14Z WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.
SPEEDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TOWARDS 00Z.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL CAROLINA REGION
TONIGHT, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THIS EVENING,
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THEN PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GALE WATCHES
POSTED FOR FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PARALLEL THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS WHILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
LOCALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY THANKS TO
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
SURF/BREAKERS OF 1-3 FT TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO AROUND 2 FEET
OR LESS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY INLAND
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GOOD TO MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES ELSEWHERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN
MIGRATE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY CREATING VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AREA-WIDE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES NEARLY
AREA-WIDE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA ON MONDAY, AS BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS COMBINE WITH
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRYING SOIL CONDITIONS. STRONG
TRANSPORT SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL CREATE HIGH TO VERY
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN DIMINISH, WITH LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS INLAND NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. SUPER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
SMOLDERING FIRES, ESPECIALLY ONES PRODUCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
SMOKE. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE FORECAST
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SAT, FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 53 61 30 / 60 90 20 0
SSI 76 57 67 34 / 30 70 40 0
JAX 86 60 70 33 / 10 50 50 0
SGJ 84 61 72 36 / 0 40 60 0
GNV 85 62 71 33 / 0 50 40 0
OCF 85 61 72 33 / 0 40 50 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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