040
FXUS62 KJAX 211759
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1259 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON &
EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH
- GALE WATCHES FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SUN AFTERNOON & TUES AFTERNOON. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MON AFTERNOON
- LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT & EARLY MON FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & LOW WIND CHILL VALUES MON NIGHT & EARLY TUES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS:
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NE FL BEACHES
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL WINDS ARE URGING TEMPERATURES TO
REACH DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE READING IN THE LOW 80S AS OF NOON AND ARE
LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A LEFTOVER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH, KEEP
THE BETTER MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONVERGENCE ISN'T LIKELY TO REACH OUR AREA IN TIME TO CAPITALIZE.
INSTEAD THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY COMPRISED OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION ELEVATES THE CONVECTION. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT BUT A SMALL RAINFALL FOOTPRINT,
IF ANY, IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH OF US-82 (WAYCROSS) IN SE GA.
GULF STRATUS WILL SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF INLAND NE FL TONIGHT BUT
FOG ISN'T LIKELY GIVEN THE BREEZY SURFACE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVELY MIXED. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER
ACROSS NE FL AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S WHILE THE TEMPS
IN SE GA FALL TO UPPER 50S AROUND DAYBREAK JUST BEFORE THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS:
- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
- SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & WIND CHILLS FALLING TO THE 20S
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY INCREASE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ON MONDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND
BECOME MORE DISPERSED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER
AND CLEARING SKIES AS COLD DRY AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. GUSTY
WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF UP
TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER ANTICIPATED, WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING ON
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH MAX TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY AND
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILARLY DROPPING DOWN INTO MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR INLAND AREAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS:
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT
- WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK
COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL INCREASE
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A MOIST WESTERLY PREVAILING FLOW
FORMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN
FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAILY TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC WHERE IT
WILL DEEPEN DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH SHOWERS TO KSSI THIS EVENING BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 03Z
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL FADE AS THEY PUSH ACROSS NE FL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS ADVECTED FROM THE GULF IS ANTICIPATED TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO IFR AT KGNV AROUND 02-04Z THIS EVENING AND WILL HOLD
UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ELSEWHERE MVFR TO LOW-VFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT OTHER AREA TERMINALS. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-
35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL CAROLINA
REGION TONIGHT, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THIS
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THEN
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE WATCHES POSTED FOR FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PARALLEL THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WHILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING LOCALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IMPACT OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY THANKS TO
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
SURF/BREAKERS OF 1-3 FT TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO AROUND 2 FEET
OR LESS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NE FL AND THE OKEFENOKEE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS MONDAY.
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY INLAND
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, PRIMARILY THE OKEFENOKEE NWR. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD AND VERY DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS NE FL AND PORTIONS OF SE
GA (OKEFENOKEE NWR). THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WAY BELOW NORMAL
ON MONDAY, STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO A
SECOND STRAIGHT DAY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIA BUT CRITICALLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SE GA BEFORE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO NE FL LATE TONIGHT.
LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THAT AREA OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER,
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD BACK FUELS BY ABOUT A DAY ACROSS SE GA
NORTH OF US-82.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE FORECAST
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 24:
KJAX: 27/1989
KGNV: 25/1989
KAMG: 24/1964
KCRG: 27/1989
8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 53 63 30 / 60 90 20 0
SSI 80 57 67 34 / 20 70 40 0
JAX 89 59 71 32 / 0 40 40 0
SGJ 86 61 72 36 / 0 30 50 0
GNV 87 60 72 32 / 0 40 30 0
OCF 87 60 73 33 / 0 30 40 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
633.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ162-163-
264-350-364.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page