153
FXUS62 KJAX 220149
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
849 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING FOR NE FL, PORTIONS OF
SE GA. WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH, MIN RH VALUES 25-30%. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AREA-WIDE MONDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY & GALE WARNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & LOW WIND CHILL VALUES MON NIGHT & EARLY TUES.
LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INLAND
UPDATE
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF SHOWERS
A FEW HOURS LATER BASED ON TRENDS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND DUE TO
THE SLIGHT DELAY, WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NE FL TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE GA, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS ENDED WITH MOST STORMS NOW
ELEVATED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AFTER SUNSET WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY OF NE FL EARLY THIS EVENING WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS CURRENTLY
NORTHWEST OF US-84 MOVING THROUGH DOUGLASS, HAZLEHURST, ALMA, AND
BAXLEY FROM US-441 ACROSS US-1 WHERE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ESE TO THE SE GA COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN REACHING JACKSONVILLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
RAINFALL AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL THIN OUT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING TO THE GA/SC COAST STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE TO THE NC COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAGGING A FEW BROKEN LINES OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH NORTHEAST FL INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL AND
THE NE FL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO MID MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED OVER NE FL AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY ELEVATED 8-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NE FL BEACHES
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL WINDS ARE URGING TEMPERATURES TO
REACH DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE READING IN THE LOW 80S AS OF NOON AND ARE
LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A LEFTOVER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH, KEEP
THE BETTER MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONVERGENCE ISN'T LIKELY TO REACH OUR AREA IN TIME TO CAPITALIZE.
INSTEAD THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY COMPRISED OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION ELEVATES THE CONVECTION. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT BUT A SMALL RAINFALL FOOTPRINT,
IF ANY, IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH OF US-82 (WAYCROSS) IN SE GA.
GULF STRATUS WILL SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF INLAND NE FL TONIGHT BUT
FOG ISN'T LIKELY GIVEN THE BREEZY SURFACE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVELY MIXED. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER
ACROSS NE FL AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S WHILE THE TEMPS
IN SE GA FALL TO UPPER 50S AROUND DAYBREAK JUST BEFORE THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS (SUNDAY - MONDAY NIGHT:
- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
- SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & WIND CHILLS FALLING TO THE 20S
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY INCREASE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ON MONDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND
BECOME MORE DISPERSED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER
AND CLEARING SKIES AS COLD DRY AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. GUSTY
WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF UP
TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER ANTICIPATED, WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING ON
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH MAX TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY AND
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILARLY DROPPING DOWN INTO MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR INLAND AREAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD:
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT
- WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK
COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL INCREASE
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A MOIST WESTERLY PREVAILING FLOW
FORMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN
FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAILY TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH 05Z AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SSI 05-09Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST FL
TAF SITES FROM 08-13Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS DURING THIS
TIME. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS FROM 13-15Z OVER NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
SUNDAY, VFR LEVELS RESUME AS THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SKIES CLEARING BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING
TO UP TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
COASTAL CAROLINA REGION TONIGHT, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THIS
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THEN
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS QUICKLY CHANGING TO GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IMPACT OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY THANKS TO
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
SURF/BREAKERS OF 1-3 FT TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO AROUND 2 FEET
OR LESS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NE FL AND OKEFENOKEE NWR SUNDAY
- AFTERNOON EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS MONDAY
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY INLAND
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD AND VERY DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS NE FL AND PORTIONS OF SE
GA (OKEFENOKEE NWR). THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WAY BELOW NORMAL
ON MONDAY, STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO A
SECOND STRAIGHT DAY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIA BUT CRITICALLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SE GA BEFORE
WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO NE FL LATE TONIGHT.
LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THAT AREA OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER,
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD BACK FUELS BY ABOUT A DAY ACROSS SE GA
NORTH OF US-82.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE FORECAST
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SAT, FEBRUARY 21:
KJAX: 86/2019
KCRG: 84/2019
KGNV: 89/2019
KAMG: 87/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 63 30 48 / 90 20 0 0
SSI 62 67 34 50 / 80 40 0 0
JAX 66 71 32 53 / 60 40 0 0
SGJ 67 72 36 54 / 40 50 0 0
GNV 67 72 32 55 / 50 30 0 0
OCF 65 73 33 56 / 40 40 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
633.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ162-163-
264-350-364.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page