743
FXUS62 KJAX 220547
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING FOR NE FL, PORTIONS OF
SE GA. WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH, MIN RH VALUES 25-30%. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AREA-WIDE MONDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY & GALE WARNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
- FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT NORTH OF I-10. WIDESPREAD FREEZE & LOW
WIND CHILL VALUES MON NIGHT & EARLY TUES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD:
- RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA
- FREEZE NORTH OF I-10 SUNDAY NIGHT & DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES AREA-WIDE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAVE SEEN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL,
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE HAD OVER AN INCH OF RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY, BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (AFTERNOON
GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH) WILL PREVENT ANY EARLY MORNING FOG, AND
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROMOTING A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SKY COVER WILL CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S,
WITH NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP JUST AT OR BELOW FREEZING
FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT, AND
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S AREA-WIDE.
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTH OF I-10. AT THIS
TIME, FORECAST MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND SUNRISE ARE NEAR 25
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA (COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NE FL IS 16-25 DEGREE WIND CHILLS), HELD OFF ON ISSUING
THE PRODUCT, BUT THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED TODAY AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS:
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY INCREASE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ON MONDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY
- LIGHT FREEZE INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT
DEEP TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION ON
MONDAY WILL PIVOT OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY MORNING
MIGRATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA ON TUESDAY.
DEEP AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 50-55 RANGE ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS
PLUNGING THROUGH THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER 20S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT 25-30 MPH GUSTS TO CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WEAKENING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A LOOSENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL YIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL, WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL
DROP WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 20S, LIKELY PROMPTING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS LATER TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES OVER THE FL
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
KEEP AT LEAST AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA
DESPITE DECREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH LONG
DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AT ALL INLAND
LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY EVENING, DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY IN THE EVENING
WILL CREATE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED AT
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND AREAS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FROST
INLAND AND AT LEAST PATCHY FROST EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS,
WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD:
- WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY
- BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A QUICKLY APPROACHING TROUGH
OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY,
WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WHILE COLDER
SHELF WATERS KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. A DRY
AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY LINGER ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL ON THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MAINLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AS PWATS BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODEL
BLENDS CURRENTLY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAVERSING OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ON
THURSDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE
50S REGION-WIDE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION,
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE
HIGHS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY REACH THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SOUTHEAST GA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH 50S FORECAST ELSEWHERE AS THE
FRONT LIKELY SLOWS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS.
BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY STALLS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FL, RESULTING IN AN ONSHORE WIND PATTERN. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY, WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL AND UPPER 60S FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MID-MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GNV HAS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DROPPING TO IFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE EARLY MORNING.
SUNDAY, VFR LEVELS RESUME AS THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SKIES CLEARING BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING
TO UP TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGING TO GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENS NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS
TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WAYCROSS SOUTHWARD
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY ON MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES TODAY, MONDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES TONIGHT
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY INLAND
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR AREA BEFORE
NOON, WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS THEN
OVERSPREADING OUR REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR LOCATIONS FROM
WAYCROSS SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY, CREATING ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION
VALUES TONIGHT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT OUR ENTIRE
REGION ON MONDAY, AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS FOLLOWING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING'S
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN IN QUESTION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ELSEWHERE, WITH HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY,
WITH FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY,
CREATING HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND, WITH GOOD VALUES
EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE LATE ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A HARD FREEZE
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND FOR
PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD FROST AND A
POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 30 49 25 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 66 34 50 31 / 40 0 0 0
JAX 70 33 53 28 / 40 0 0 0
SGJ 73 36 54 33 / 50 0 0 0
GNV 70 34 55 27 / 30 0 0 0
OCF 71 34 55 27 / 40 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ151-152-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-452-454.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-472-474.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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