773
FXUS62 KJAX 221045
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
545 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WAYCROSS AND
BLACKSHEAR, GA SOUTHWARD. FREQUENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
25-35 MPH AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25% EXPECTED. FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- FREEZE WARNING NORTH OF I-10 TONIGHT & LOW WIND CHILLS AREA-
WIDE EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
- FREEZE WATCHES AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD:
- RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
FL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA
- FREEZE FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT & DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AREA-WIDE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAVE SEEN
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, SOME LOCATIONS HAVE HAD OVER AN INCH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY, BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
(AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH) WILL PREVENT ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG, AND WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROMOTING
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SKY COVER WILL CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S,
WITH NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP JUST AT OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT, AND WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE 20S AREA-WIDE. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA NORTH OF I-10. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST MINIMUM WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND SUNRISE ARE NEAR 25 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA (COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NE FL IS
16-25 DEGREE WIND CHILLS), HELD OFF ON ISSUING THE PRODUCT, BUT
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS:
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY INCREASE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ON MONDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE & DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY
NIGHT
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY
- LIGHT FREEZE INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT
DEEP TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
ON MONDAY WILL PIVOT OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY MORNING MIGRATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA ON TUESDAY. DEEP AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 50-55 RANGE
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS PLUNGING THROUGH THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER
20S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT 25-30 MPH GUSTS TO CREATE
ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WEAKENING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A LOOSENING
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL YIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. A HARD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, AND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHEAST FL, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXTENDING TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 20S, LIKELY PROMPTING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS LATER TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES OVER
THE FL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES
AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE TEENS AND 20S WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA DESPITE DECREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS, WITH LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES FORECAST AT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY EVENING, DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY IN
THE EVENING WILL CREATE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
EXPECTED AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND AREAS TO POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD FROST INLAND AND AT LEAST PATCHY FROST EXTENDING TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HAZARDS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD:
- WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY
- BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A QUICKLY APPROACHING
TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH LATE
FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY, WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S, WHILE COLDER SHELF WATERS KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY LINGER ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL ON THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AS PWATS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. MODEL BLENDS CURRENTLY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRAVERSING OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S REGION-WIDE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER,
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE HIGHS
ELSEWHERE GENERALLY REACH THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SOUTHEAST GA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH 50S FORECAST ELSEWHERE AS THE FRONT
LIKELY SLOWS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS.
BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY STALLS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL, RESULTING IN AN ONSHORE WIND PATTERN. HIGHS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY,
WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL AND UPPER 60S FOR
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 15Z, WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND 800-1,000 FEET
POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, MAINLY BEFORE 13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 17Z.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 14Z, WITH SPEEDS STEADILY
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY 16Z AND THEN 20-25 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT 30-35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 18Z. SPEEDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 00Z, BUT PERIODIC GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGING TO GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS
TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WAYCROSS AND
BLACKSHEAR, GA SOUTHWARD
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY ON MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES TODAY, MONDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES TONIGHT
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY INLAND
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR AREA
BEFORE NOON, WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS THEN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR
LOCATIONS FROM WAYCROSS SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHERE RED
FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS AND BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, CREATING ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES TONIGHT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT OUR ENTIRE
REGION ON MONDAY, AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS FOLLOWING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING'S
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN IN QUESTION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ELSEWHERE, WITH HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL.
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AT
ALL INLAND LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, WITH FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND, WITH GOOD VALUES EXPECTED AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST AREA-WIDE LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD FROST AND A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE
ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 30 49 25 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 66 34 50 31 / 40 0 0 0
JAX 70 33 53 28 / 40 0 0 0
SGJ 73 36 54 33 / 50 0 0 0
GNV 70 34 55 27 / 30 0 0 0
OCF 71 34 55 27 / 40 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ151-152-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-452-454.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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