284
FXUS62 KJAX 081826
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE TOWARDS
SUNSET.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE TOWARDS
SUNSET.
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MONDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1026
MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. MEANWHILE,
A LENGTHY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF.
ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WHICH LIES IN
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWESTERN GULF)
AND A BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OZARKS THAT WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LATEST GOES- EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWATS VALUES OF 1.25 -
1.5 INCHES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. OUTSIDE OF
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES AT 18Z HAVE GENERALLY WARMED
TO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE COOLED
TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS OUR REGION.
TROUGHING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIRECT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
AREA AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE AND ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2,000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY
CONTAIN A 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION,
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO PULSE
AND BECOME BRIEFLY STRONG ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEFLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO STALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING FOR OUR REGION. THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT A DECK
OF LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE FOG EASTWARD
FROM APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEAST GULF ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY, WITH THESE LOWER
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY APPROACHING THE I-95
CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID
60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE RATHER WEAK INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL PERSIST A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
REGIME WILL ALSO AID WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND DUE TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY HIGHER ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR GA CLOSER TO A STALLED DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
ESSENTIALLY CURTAIL ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW REGIME AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHERE MORE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING IN RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER 80S WILL BECOME EVEN MORE COMMON
INLAND BY TUESDAY, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALSO VERY POSSIBLE.
ONCE AGAIN, HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE NEAR RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS, VERY MILD MORNINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS IN SOME AREAS
AS 60S WILL BE COMMON EACH NIGHT. AS MENTIONED WITH THE ABOVE
HEADLINES, PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES WEDNESDAY.
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT
HIGHER HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT WILL REACH ITS PEAK ON WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY, PERHAPS THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. THIS CHANGES RATHER QUICKLY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE TOO FAST
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT NEEDED RAINFALL, THOUGH A QUICK QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA, LIKELY SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT SPLIT WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING, AS
WELL AS IF/WHERE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE EASTERN
FL COAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW, KEPT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TO/SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING, MOVING OFFSHORE BY 02Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AT VQQ TOWARDS 05Z AND WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 12Z MONDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS, EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVE
INLAND, LIKELY COLLIDING NEAR THE I-95 OR U.S. HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR AFTER 20Z. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL ONCE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z, WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
EPISODES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS
WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS RISK PERSISTING AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY COMBINE WITH THIS SWELL ON WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK
AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK
FORECAST AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY
GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. TODAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE
COAST WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE OFF THE GULF MEETS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS THE STABLE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE COAST. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER
OVERALL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WHILE REMAINING VERY WARM
AS WELL. DISPERSIONS WILL TREND IN THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME FOR MOST, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND WESTERN AREAS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA-WIDE ON
THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8: KJAX: 86/1974
KCRG: 86/1998
KGNV: 88/1921
KAMG: 86/1974
MARCH 9: KJAX: 88/2024
KCRG: 83/2012
KGNV: 89/1907
KAMG: 86/1974
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8: KJAX: 68/1946
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 65/1973
KAMG: 63/1973
MARCH 9: KJAX: 69/2024
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 69/2024
KAMG: 63/1973
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 83 63 86 / 40 10 20 10
SSI 62 78 63 78 / 40 10 20 10
JAX 61 85 62 87 / 20 10 10 10
SGJ 63 83 61 83 / 40 10 10 10
GNV 61 86 61 89 / 10 10 0 10
OCF 61 86 61 89 / 10 10 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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