393
FXUS62 KJAX 082348
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
748 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR. MAIN HAZARDS: LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS, BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS & SMALL HAIL
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE TOWARDS SUNSET.
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
ON MONDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1026
MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, A
LENGTHY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WHICH LIES IN BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWESTERN GULF) AND A BROAD TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS THAT WAS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LATEST GOES-
EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWATS
VALUES OF 1.25 - 1.5 INCHES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA.
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. OUTSIDE OF
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES AT 18Z HAVE GENERALLY WARMED TO
THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE COOLED TO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR
REGION.
TROUGHING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIRECT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE AND ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES AROUND 2,000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED AND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY CONTAIN A 30-35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO PULSE AND BECOME BRIEFLY STRONG ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, AND BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO STALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING FOR OUR REGION. THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT A DECK OF
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE FOG EASTWARD FROM
APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEAST GULF ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY, WITH THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY APPROACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
SUNRISE. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE RATHER WEAK INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL PERSIST A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
REGIME WILL ALSO AID WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND DUE TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY HIGHER ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR GA CLOSER TO A STALLED DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
ESSENTIALLY CURTAIL ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW REGIME AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHERE MORE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING IN RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER 80S WILL BECOME EVEN MORE COMMON
INLAND BY TUESDAY, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALSO VERY POSSIBLE.
ONCE AGAIN, HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE NEAR RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS, VERY MILD MORNINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS IN SOME AREAS
AS 60S WILL BE COMMON EACH NIGHT. AS MENTIONED WITH THE ABOVE
HEADLINES, PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGHER HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT WILL REACH ITS PEAK ON WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY, PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE YEAR SO FAR. THIS CHANGES RATHER QUICKLY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE TOO FAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
NEEDED RAINFALL, THOUGH A QUICK QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA, LIKELY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT
SPLIT WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT
BEFORE STALLING, AS WELL AS IF/WHERE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS
OFF THE EASTERN FL COAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW, KEPT AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING CLOSER TO/SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THEN PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z AS
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS ON
MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AT VQQ TOWARDS
05Z AND WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY
12Z MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF
SITES, EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND AROUND 16Z TO 18Z.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EPISODES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL
KEEP A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THIS RISK PERSISTING AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY COMBINE
WITH THIS SWELL ON WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK AT THE NORTHEAST
FL BEACHES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FORECAST AT THE SOUTHEAST
GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY
GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. TODAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING, MAINLY TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE OFF THE GULF MEETS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DISPERSIONS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS THE
STABLE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER OVERALL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, WHILE REMAINING VERY WARM AS WELL. DISPERSIONS WILL TREND
IN THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR MOST,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND WESTERN AREAS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8: KJAX: 86/1974
KCRG: 86/1998
KGNV: 88/1921
KAMG: 86/1974
MARCH 9: KJAX: 88/2024
KCRG: 83/2012
KGNV: 89/1907
KAMG: 86/1974
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8: KJAX: 68/1946
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 65/1973
KAMG: 63/1973
MARCH 9: KJAX: 69/2024
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 69/2024
KAMG: 63/1973
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 83 63 86 / 30 10 20 10
SSI 62 78 63 78 / 40 10 20 10
JAX 61 85 62 87 / 30 10 10 10
SGJ 63 83 61 83 / 40 10 10 10
GNV 61 86 61 89 / 10 10 0 10
OCF 61 86 61 89 / 10 10 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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