921
FXUS62 KJAX 091832
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
232 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL
AREA BEACHES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE (1028 MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WHILE STOUT
RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWEST
GULF). A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WAS TRAVERSING THE OZARKS, WITH THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER
THAT BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED TO A
HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD, WITH CLEARING NOTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS AS SEABREEZES BEGIN PUSHING INLAND.
TEMPERATURES AT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE GENERALLY RISEN TO THE
80-85 DEGREE RANGE AS OF 18Z, WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
SEABREEZE COOLING THROUGH THE 70S BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
/ SOUTHWEST GULF RIDGE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
AL AND GA OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA AND OCMULGEE RIVERS AS IT DECAYS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER
APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEAST GULF LIKELY ADVECTING LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS ONSHORE ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, LOWS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH IS ABOUT
10- 14 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY/MID MARCH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MORNING FOG THIS PERIOD, MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
- POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME, AN ISOLATED
COASTAL SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
DUE TO COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND A WEAK UPPER
WAVE. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY, SO
CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST.
FOG IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MORNING FOG THURSDAY, MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
- CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN SHOWERS SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER APALACHEE BAY
AND THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN AT VQQ AFTER 05Z,
WITH IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS REACHING GNV TOWARDS 10Z
TUESDAY, WHILE CONDITIONS AT VQQ LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR
BEFORE 08Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER STRATUS
CEILINGS REMAINS TO LOW TO INDICATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR SSI, JAX, CRG, AND
SGJ. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, WHILE
ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PREVAIL AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. OTHERWISE, A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, CREATING
A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL OF
9-10 SECONDS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH
THIS SWELL ON WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK AT THE NORTHEAST
FL BEACHES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FORECAST AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER NE FL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH FRIDAY, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, AND AGAIN MONDAY
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9: KJAX: 88/2024
KCRG: 83/2012
KGNV: 89/1907
KAMG: 86/1974
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9: KJAX: 69/2024
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 69/2024
KAMG: 63/1973
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 88 61 89 / 10 10 0 0
SSI 63 79 62 79 / 0 10 0 0
JAX 62 89 62 91 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 64 85 63 85 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 62 90 62 91 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 62 90 63 90 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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