916
FXUS62 KJAX 100044
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
844 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY & THURSDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, &
SMALL HAIL. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL
AREA BEACHES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE (1028 MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. ALOFT...ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WHILE STOUT RIDGING REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWEST GULF). A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS TRAVERSING THE
OZARKS, WITH THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1 INCH FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA
TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER THAT BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING HAS
SINCE LIFTED TO A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD, WITH CLEARING NOTED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS AS SEABREEZES BEGIN PUSHING
INLAND. TEMPERATURES AT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE GENERALLY RISEN TO THE
80-85 DEGREE RANGE AS OF 18Z, WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
SEABREEZE COOLING THROUGH THE 70S BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60-65 RANGE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE /
SOUTHWEST GULF RIDGE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
THAT WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL AND GA
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA AND OCMULGEE RIVERS AS IT DECAYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE, SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF LIKELY ADVECTING LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS ONSHORE ALONG
THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE
U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, LOWS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH IS ABOUT 10-
14 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY/MID MARCH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MORNING FOG THIS PERIOD, MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
- POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD, WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME, AN ISOLATED
COASTAL SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DUE
TO COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE. THE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY, SO CONVECTION IS
NOT FORECAST.
FOG IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MORNING FOG THURSDAY, MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
- CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY,
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES AT LEAST 04Z. LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF ACROSS NORTH FL AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. IFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AT VQQ AFTER 05Z, WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS REACHING GNV TOWARDS 10Z TUESDAY, WHILE
CONDITIONS AT VQQ LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR BEFORE 08Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR EASTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS CLOSE TO THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY FOR SSI, JAX, CRG, AND SGJ.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL LIKELY SURGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
RESULTING IN CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL
OF 9-10 SECONDS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH THIS
SWELL ON WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FORECAST AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER NE FL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH FRIDAY, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, AND AGAIN MONDAY
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9: KJAX: 88/2024
KCRG: 83/2012
KGNV: 89/1907
KAMG: 86/1974
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9: KJAX: 69/2024
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 69/2024
KAMG: 63/1973
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 88 61 89 / 10 10 0 0
SSI 63 79 62 79 / 0 10 0 0
JAX 62 89 62 91 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 64 85 63 85 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 62 90 62 91 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 62 90 63 90 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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