847
FXUS62 KJAX 100553
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
153 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY & THURSDAY
EVENING WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL
AREA BEACHES.
WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL AID IN THE ADVECTION
OF FOG FROM THE GULF TOWARDS LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. LINGERING FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER
SUNRISE AS LIGHT WINDS REDEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST, AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND NE FL. THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW, THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVE INLAND AND
INTERACT. BY THE EVENING HOURS, PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT INLAND LOCATIONS
- CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT INTO NE FL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF AND THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY SHOWER OR T'STORM CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH LOW 90S FROM ALONG I-95 WESTWARD TO I-75/US-
441 AND UPPER 80S WESTWARD OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND FAR INLAND
SE GA TO AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE COOLER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 8-15
MPH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH LOW STRATUS SHIFTING NNE FROM THE NATURE
COAST OFF THE NE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO INLAND SE GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY BY SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.
THURSDAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL NEUTRALLY TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED T"STORMS. THE LINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS, AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW STRONG VEERING WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW, SO WHILE A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
T'STORMS THE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES DUE TO
TRAINING OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH.
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL TURN NW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES INTO NE FL WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS COMING TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL AND PORTIONS OF THE NE FL COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF NE FL WITH MID TO UPPER
80S OVER THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT
FRIDAY, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWS ITS PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL FL INTO SOUTHERN FL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-10
WITH NE WINDS BECOMING EAST NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC.
THIS WEEKEND, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BRIEFLY REINFORCE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE TREND
SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL TROUGHING FORMS TO THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A ATLANTIC/GULF SEABREEZES
PUSHING INLAND AND KICKING OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T'STORMS DUE
TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING.
MONDAY, STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OZARKS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, TN, AND OH VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND T'STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY,
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES
ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH IN FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT. IFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AT VQQ AFTER BEFORE 07Z,
LIFR POSSIBLY BY 08Z. IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS REACHING GNV
TOWARDS 10Z. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW FOR EASTWARD EXTENT
OF LOWER CIGS FOR SSI/JAX/CRG/SGJ. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY WINDS FOR COASTAL SITES
AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN AROUND 17Z TO 20Z.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES ON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL LIKELY SURGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
RESULTING IN CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL
OF 9-10 SECONDS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH THIS
SWELL ON WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FORECAST AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS VALUES TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WEDNESDAY
- HIGH DISPERSIONS THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA WSW INTO CENTRAL FL WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A
BRIEF SHOWER AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES ONSHORE NEAR I-95
BEFORE MERGING WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GULF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, INLAND MINRH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT.
MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS.
WEDNESDAY, BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LEADING TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS FROM I-10 NORTHWARD.
INCREASING SHOWERS ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LINE OF T'STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS. AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH, HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL RESULT DESPITE MOSTLY
CLOUDS SKIES.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MIN RH VALUES
FALLING TO 35-40 PERCENT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 301 INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS
FLAGLER, PUTNAM, AND MARION COUNTIES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 62 89 63 / 10 0 0 10
SSI 80 63 80 64 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 90 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 85 64 85 64 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 90 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 90 63 91 62 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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