363
FXUS62 KJAX 101746
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR I-75
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY & THURSDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, &
SMALL HAIL. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH INLAND HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S AS AN ONSHORE
BREEZE DEVELOPS. MILD LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
WITH FOG MOVING IN OFF THE GULF IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NEAR TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR TO RECORD HIGHS INLAND AROUND 90, AND LOWER
TO MID 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH, AS
BETTER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE, THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE INLAND. GIVEN FORECAST TIMING,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S OVER COASTAL NE FL, SO
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS WELL. INLAND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. THIS COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
FRIDAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 AT THE COAST, TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S OVER SE GA, TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S NE FL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY, BRINGING IN A
DRIER AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE TAF SITES, WITH RELATIVELY
CALM WINDS.
MARINE
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
LIKELY SURGE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN CAUTION CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL OF
9-10 SECONDS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH
THIS SWELL ON WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK AT THE NORTHEAST
FL BEACHES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FORECAST AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH NORTHWEST FRIDAY, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION ON MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT, ALONG
THE I75 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL NE FL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 62 89 63 / 10 0 0 10
SSI 79 63 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 90 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 85 64 85 64 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 90 63 91 62 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 90 64 91 62 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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