281
FXUS62 KJAX 110019
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
819 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75 WEDNESDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY & THURSDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MILD LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH FOG
MOVING IN OFF THE GULF IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR TO RECORD HIGHS INLAND AROUND 90, AND LOWER
TO MID 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NEAR TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH,
AS BETTER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE, THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE INLAND. GIVEN FORECAST TIMING,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S OVER COASTAL NE FL, SO
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS WELL. INLAND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. THIS COASTAL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FRIDAY,
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
70 AT THE COAST, TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S OVER SE GA, TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S NE FL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY, BRINGING IN
A DRIER AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT VQQ. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY
15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SGJ
AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z, RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL OTHERWISE
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 19Z
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY SURGE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, RESULTING
IN CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. OTHERWISE, A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH THIS SWELL ON
WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES,
WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FORECAST AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST FRIDAY, THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION
ON MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT,
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL NE FL. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY:
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 89 63 76 / 0 0 60 90
SSI 63 81 64 76 / 0 0 40 90
JAX 64 91 64 84 / 0 0 30 90
SGJ 64 85 64 83 / 0 0 20 80
GNV 63 91 63 83 / 0 0 30 80
OCF 63 91 63 85 / 0 0 20 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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