223
FXUS62 KJAX 111218
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
818 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, ALONG & WEST
OF I-75
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR AREA BEACHES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, & SMALL HAIL.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
UPDATE
PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY PER LATEST GUIDANCE
AND PWATS ARE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER TODAY DESPITE THE MOISTURE. THIS IS DUE TO THE HIGH ALOFT
AND LACK OF A STRONGER TRIGGER FOR LIFT. NOTING THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE CLOSE TO THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY TODAY. NO CHANGE
TO THE HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND, BUT MID 80S AT THE
COAST DUE TO A STRONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS. THESE
HIGHS ARE ABOUT 18-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
-AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
-NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HELP FROM STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL GULF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL IS KEEPING VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-8 MPH AT THE
COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER WITH INLAND AREAS BECOMING GENERALLY CALM
WITH PATCHY FOG OBSERVED WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 AND AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF I-75. THE FOG WILL LIFT JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY, THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DEEPENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE OH, TN, AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO OUR SOUTH. THE FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 5-10 MPH OVER THE AREA, BEFORE TURNING BREEZY AT THE COAST AS
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, WHILE
WINDS RISE TO AROUND 10 MPH INLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. ONLY FEW
TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FEW THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 90S BETWEEN I-95 AND I-75
THAT WILL LIKELY ECLIPSE DAILY RECORD HIGH VALUES WHILE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS KEEP AREAS NEARER TO THE GULF COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND THE NE FL AND SE GA COAST LIMITED TO THE LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
STATES. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF T'STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF ALMA AROUND SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10 MPH OVER NW PARTS OF SE GA AND 5-10
MPH ELSEWHERE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY ADVECT IN FROM THE NE GULF
WATERS TOWARDS I-75 ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS, BUT THE WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
INLAND SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE INTO
COASTAL SE GA AND THE REST OF NE FL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT BUT MINIMAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THE CONVECTION
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE MAIN FORCING FOR
ASCENT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 80S OVER COASTAL NE FL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY REINVIGORATE
STORMS WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. OTHERWISE, BENEFICIAL RAIN OF A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S
ACROSS SE GA AND 50S IN NE FL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FRIDAY,
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTH-
CENTRAL FL AND COAST NE FL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70
AT THE COAST, TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER SE
GA, TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S NE FL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPAND ACROSS NE FL ON SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL FL AND MOIST SE FLOW DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE US. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREA-WIDE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT
WEAKENS WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE PARENT LOW
LIFTS WELL NORTHEASTWARD. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY, BRINGING IN A DRIER AND NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIRMASS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AFTER ABOUT 08Z THURSDAY, SOME LIGHT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON SSI, JAX, VQQ, AND GNV. UNCERTAIN ON
THIS POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME GIVEN PROBABILITIES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH,
BUT WILL MONITOR GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE STRATUS IN THE
SUBSEQUENT TAFS. AFTER NEAR CALM WINDS, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL
RESUME TO 5-8 KNOTS AFTER 13Z/14Z AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS ALONG
THE COAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS WINDS TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
SGJ, SSI AND CRG AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE BETWEEN 16-19Z. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT GNV FROM THE GULF SEABREEZE PASSAGE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ATLANTIC SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WITH WINDS
ELEVATING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY SEA
FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TONIGHT AND ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES DUE TO A BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN
SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS. A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO
MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SWELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 8 SECONDS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING
HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR INLAND SE GA. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ALONG THE COAST. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS IN INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA MAINLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40
PERCENT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: BEST CHANCE FOR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING, ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL NE FL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 63 73 41 / 0 10 90 10
SSI 80 64 77 53 / 0 0 90 30
JAX 92 65 82 52 / 0 0 90 30
SGJ 87 65 84 56 / 0 0 80 40
GNV 91 63 82 53 / 0 0 80 30
OCF 90 63 83 56 / 0 0 70 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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