437
FXUS62 KJAX 111826
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
226 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, ALONG &
WEST OF I-75
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR AREA BEACHES.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS, & SMALL HAIL. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
-NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
-PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA, WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON
TEMPS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOUT 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH TODAY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND TO AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR IF NOT
SEVERAL MILES BEYOND IT THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S ALREADY PASSED THROUGH
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AT OF 2 PM. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TODAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION, MOVING TO A LINE FROM
EASTERN GA TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY ABOUT 7 AM THURSDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HRRR, NSSL, AND NAM SHOW PRECIP STILL WEST OF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 7 AM THURSDAY. THEREFORE, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE
ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY SO NO POPS TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS FOG MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY PROBLEM AND RATHER
JUST LOW STRATUS LAYER GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE GROUND MAY BE AROUND 10-12 KT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BEGIN JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, QUICKLY PROGRESSING
AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH
AREA-WIDE, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. BY SUNSET, MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA, WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING NEAR
COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA) WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN DECENT
SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE.
THERE WILL BE A LARGE RANGE OF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, WITH INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA STAYING
IN THE 70S, AND FLAGLER COUNTY RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEEK, WITH INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH RAIN CHANCES AT ABOUT 15-20% FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT STILL IMPRESSIVELY AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
SATURDAY WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH 80S
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FURTHER ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH THE HELP OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY STAYING
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES UP TO 4 TO 6 KFT. TOWARD THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, WE ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS TO BEGIN
AROUND THE GNV AREA FROM 06Z TO 09Z, AND FROM 09Z-12Z NEAR JAX AND
VQQ. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CIG RESTRICTIONS AT GNV WHERE IFR IS LIKELY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST GA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIP AS WELL. VCSH COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 13Z-14Z, BUT
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WILL BE BETWEEN 15Z-18Z AT
SSI, FROM 15Z-19Z FOR JAX, VQQ, CRG, AND GNV, AND 17Z-20Z FOR SGJ.
AT THIS TIME, ANTICIPATE MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION.
A MIX OF SOME MVFR AND VFR CIGS EXPECTED POST-FRONT. SFC WINDS
AROUND 8-12 KT WILL INCREASE A BIT FURTHER INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KT G20-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
MARINE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES TO A LINE FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO THE WEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A MODERATE
RISK EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW AND GENERALLY
WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING HOURS IN INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH
DISPERSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 63 73 41 / 0 10 90 10
SSI 80 64 77 53 / 0 0 90 30
JAX 92 65 82 52 / 0 0 90 30
SGJ 87 65 84 56 / 0 0 80 40
GNV 91 63 82 53 / 0 0 80 30
OCF 90 63 83 56 / 0 0 70 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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