101
FXUS62 KJAX 120039
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE (0.25 - 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE).
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- FROST POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION, MOVING TO A
LINE FROM EASTERN GA TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY ABOUT 7 AM
THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HRRR, NSSL, AND NAM SHOW PRECIP
STILL WEST OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 7 AM THURSDAY. THEREFORE,
WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA UNTIL DAYTIME
THURSDAY SO NO POPS TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOG MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A
VISIBILITY PROBLEM AND RATHER JUST LOW STRATUS LAYER GIVEN THAT
WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET UP MAY BE AROUND 10-12 KT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 60S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BEGIN
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, QUICKLY
PROGRESSING AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGH AREA-WIDE, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. BY SUNSET, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA,
WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING NEAR COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA) WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN DECENT SHEAR, BUT
INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE.
THERE WILL BE A LARGE RANGE OF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, WITH INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
STAYING IN THE 70S, AND FLAGLER COUNTY RISING INTO THE UPPER
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK, WITH INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH RAIN CHANCES AT ABOUT 15-20%
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT STILL
IMPRESSIVELY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. SHOWER
CHANCES REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. ONSHORE
WINDS SATURDAY WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
WITH 80S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FURTHER ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH THE HELP OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY
STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES AT THIS
TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE LIGHT FREEZE CONCERNS, BUT FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA LATE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE LOWS COULD FALL TO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. LOWS ELSEWHERE SHOULD FALL TO THE 40S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER APALACHEE BAY
AND THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE THIS EVENING WILL ADVECT ONSHORE
ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, SPREADING
INLAND TO THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 06Z. WE EXPECT IFR CEILINGS OF
500-900 FEET TO THEN OVERSPREAD THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND
SSI AFTER 09Z, WITH THESE LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARRIVING AT SGJ
TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY
15Z AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WILL ARRIVE AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 14Z-19Z.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, AND IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR REGIONAL
TERMINALS BY 21Z, WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TREND TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY BY 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 20Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE
AREA.
MARINE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES TO A LINE FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO THE WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND REACH EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO
MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS IN INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
MAINLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. MIN RHS WILL
DROP TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
ON SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG NEAR THE I-75
CORRIDOR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 64 74 39 72 / 10 90 10 0
SSI 65 76 51 69 / 0 80 20 10
JAX 66 82 50 75 / 0 80 20 10
SGJ 66 83 56 74 / 0 80 30 20
GNV 64 81 51 80 / 0 80 20 10
OCF 64 83 53 80 / 0 70 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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