317
FXUS62 KJAX 120721
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS 40-60 MPH. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS OF
30-50 MPH & SMALL HAIL. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
(0.25 - 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE)
- GALE WARNINGS & SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- FROST POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
MAINLY ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW STRATUS SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
HIGHWAY 301 ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INLAND SE GA
WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG OBSERVED DUE TO WINDS ELEVATED ABOVE THE
SURFACE. EXPECTING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER TO CENTRAL AL INTO NORTHERN GA, APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS AN ORGANIZED LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN TIER OF SE GA COUNTIES, THEN MOVE INTO
WESTERN AREAS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE (8-9AM). SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES
STEADILY TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL MARCH THROUGH SE GA
AND INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AND REACH THE SE GA COAST AND IN TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY THE LUNCH
HOUR BEFORE THE LINE PUSHES TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE T'STORMS FOR INLAND SE GA ALONG AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AND
FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS IS WHERE THE
LINE WILL STILL FEATURE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION DUE TO STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT, 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS, AND SURFACE CAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ALONG WITH A POTENT LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET OF 40-45 KNOTS THAT
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS TO BE BRIEFLY
PRODUCED. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THE STORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS TO THE SE GA COAST AND AREAS EAST
OF I-75 ACROSS NE FL AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN LESS SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE T'STORM POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS 1-3 INCHES WHERE THE STORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH,
BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 0.25-1.00 INCH.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS ONLY IN THE MID 70S
OVER INLAND SE GA AND WARMEST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE ALONG I-95 INTO
THE MID 80S INTO THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WINDS WILL BE
VERY BREEZY OUTSIDE OF T'STORMS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH, BUT REMAINING BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AND STAYING BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST AND I-95 CORRIDOR OF NE FL 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. A COASTAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING
IN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFF THE ATLANTIC ONTO THE NE FL COAST TO
THE ST JOHNS RIVER. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER SE GA WITH
LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S NW OF WAYCROSS, 40S OVER INLAND NE FL
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SANTA FE RIVER AND ALONG I-10 WITH LOW
TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY RETREAT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG OUR LOCAL
ATLANTIC COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE TO AREAS SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FL
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AS WARM, MOIST
SE FLOW DEVELOPS. IN THE ESE SURFACE FLOW, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW-MID 80S
FURTHER INLAND. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND ACROSS NE
FL MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL CONTINUES TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY AS FLOW SHIFTS TO SW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE SE US. INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM SW FLOW. A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW SEASONABLE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR INLAND SE GA AND, COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS, COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR FROST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
LOW STRATUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NE FL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM GNV INTO THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS BY 10Z, THEN SSI,
CRG, AND SGJ BY 11-12Z BRINGING PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
FROM 10-14Z AS A LINE OF ORGANIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND T'STORMS MARCH
EAST INTO THE TAF SITES BY 16Z. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
TWEAKED HIGHER IF STRONGER STORMS HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE LONGER,
FROM 16-20Z WITH VCTS AT GNV AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE AROUND
15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
SOME LOW END MVFR CEILINGS WILL LAG BEHIND THE LINE WITH VCSH BEFORE
CLEARING AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 22Z AT ALL SITES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS 12-15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS TRENDING NORTH NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD 00-06Z.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
CREATING CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. WINDS MAY
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOLLOWED BY GALE
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED ON TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
AND GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS IN INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. GOOD DISPERSIONS ON FRIDAY. MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40
PERCENT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES INLAND WARM BACK INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 39 72 46 / 90 0 0 0
SSI 76 51 69 56 / 90 0 0 0
JAX 81 49 75 53 / 90 10 10 0
SGJ 83 55 74 59 / 90 20 10 10
GNV 81 49 80 55 / 90 10 10 0
OCF 82 53 82 58 / 80 20 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-
452.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ470-
472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ474.
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