348
FXUS62 KJAX 121818
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
218 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- GALE WARNINGS & SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- FROST POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
- GALE WARNINGS & SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS PUSH SOUTH OF THE JAX METRO AND WILL PUSH
OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL FL BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ABSENT MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES TO HAVE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE RAIN FROM EARLIER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO LOWER INTO THE
60S, BUT AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND A BIT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 70S OVER INLAND SE GA, INTO
THE MID 80S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE JAX METRO ALONG I-95, THE
SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN, AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP INLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING MORE NORTH
NORTHEASTERLY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND I-95
CORRIDOR OF NE FL WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. A
COASTAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OFF THE ATLANTIC ONTO THE NE FL COAST TO THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER SE GA WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE
LOWER 40S NW OF WAYCROSS, MID TO UPPER 40S OVER INLAND NE FL ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SANTA FE RIVER AND ALONG I-10, WITH LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE 'COOLER' BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH AN
ONSHORE BREEZE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EASTERN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CREEP INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DISSIPATING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPANDING
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW NEAR THE
COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE STEADILY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, LEAVING
CHILLY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING LOWER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS,
INCREASING CONCERN FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE CALMER AND
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. SOME LOW END MVFR CEILINGS WILL LAG BEHIND THE LINE WITH VCSH
BEFORE CLEARING AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 22Z AT ALL SITES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS 12-15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS TRENDING NORTH NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE WEAKENING GRADUALLY.
MARINE
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
AND GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 30-35% OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES INLAND WARM BACK INTO
THE 80S ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND
POTENTIALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-
WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 39 72 46 / 90 0 0 0
SSI 76 51 69 56 / 90 0 0 0
JAX 81 49 75 53 / 90 10 10 0
SGJ 83 55 74 59 / 90 20 10 10
GNV 81 49 80 55 / 90 10 10 0
OCF 82 53 82 58 / 80 20 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-
452-470-472.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ454-474.
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