723
FXUS62 KJAX 122331
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
731 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- GALE WARNINGS & SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- FROST POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGHING WILL HELP KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AND GUSTY INTO THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE 'COOLER' BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH AN
ONSHORE BREEZE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVLOP
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EASTERN NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CREEP INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DISSIPATING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPANDING
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW NEAR THE
COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE STEADILY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, LEAVING
CHILLY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING LOWER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS,
INCREASING CONCERN FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE CALMER AND
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDIITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST, AND THROUGH THE EVENING
FURTHER INLAND.
MARINE
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
AND GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 30-35% OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES INLAND WARM BACK INTO
THE 80S ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND
POTENTIALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-
WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 40 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 51 69 56 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 50 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 56 74 59 77 / 10 0 0 20
GNV 50 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 53 82 59 83 / 10 0 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ454-474.
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