119
FXUS62 KJAX 130916
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
516 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
- FROST POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HIGH RIP CURRENTS AREA BEACHES TODAY, BREEZY NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING.
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THE AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER NORTHERN AL,
NORTHERN GA AND MIDDLE TN. BY SUNRISE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INTERIOR SE GA AND FOR COASTAL AREAS AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
INTERIOR NE FL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC, WITH WINDS TAPERING FURTHER TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
AREA BEACHES THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH SOME TAPERING OF THE
RIPS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN NE FL. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW STATUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
SHOWERS WILL CREEP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW DEVELOPS AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EXPANDS NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW-MID 80S INLAND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
- FROST POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING FOR INLAND SE GEORGIA
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. CONVECTION COMES TO AN MONDAY
EVENING. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THEN ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW SEASONABLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR
INLAND SE GA AND, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR FROST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLY TODAY WILL BRING
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS DO TAPER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION AS COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN. MIN RHS WILL DROP
TO 30-40 OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S
ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY
HIGH DISPERSIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-
WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 48 81 57 / 0 0 10 20
SSI 70 56 72 62 / 0 0 10 30
JAX 77 54 80 61 / 0 0 10 20
SGJ 75 60 77 63 / 0 0 20 40
GNV 81 56 83 61 / 0 0 30 20
OCF 83 59 83 62 / 0 10 40 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ450-
452-454-470-472-474.
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