202
FXUS62 KJAX 131208
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
808 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY OVER COASTAL WATERS
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
- FROST POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY
UPDATE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES TO THE WINDS. AT 8
AM, WE ARE STILL GETTING NORTHEAST WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED
(MAYPORT 21 MPH, JEKYLL ISLAND 20 MPH) SO MINOR EDITS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING WINDS. THESE WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME STRATO CLOUDS OVER ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES AND
BASED ON GUIDANCE THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
FL DURING THE DAY (MAINLY EASTERN ZONES). OTHERWISE MINOR
CHANGES FOR THE TEMPS BASED ON TRENDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BIT MORE FOG COVERAGE, BUT UNCERTAIN ON THIS FOR NOW WITH
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM HREF AND THE HRRR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HIGH RIP CURRENTS AREA BEACHES TODAY, BREEZY NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING.
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THE AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER NORTHERN AL,
NORTHERN GA AND MIDDLE TN. BY SUNRISE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INTERIOR SE GA AND FOR COASTAL AREAS AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
INTERIOR NE FL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC, WITH WINDS TAPERING FURTHER TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
AREA BEACHES THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH SOME TAPERING OF THE
RIPS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN NE FL. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW STATUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- QUIET AND WARMER SATURDAY, THEN UNSETTLED SUNDAY & MONDAY
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SAT NIGHT
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
A WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD POP ACROSS OUR NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS A MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT UNDER BACKING WSW FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION OF
THE INCREASED MOISTURE TRAILING THE WARM FRONT AND A PREVAILING
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM
THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. A BRIEF RESPITE IN RAIN CHANCES IS FORECAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
- FROST POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING FOR INLAND SE GEORGIA
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. CONVECTION COMES TO AN MONDAY
EVENING. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THEN ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW SEASONABLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR
INLAND SE GA AND, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR FROST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
OCCASIONAL STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 2500-3500 FT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES EARLY TODAY AND OVERALL BECOMING SCATTERED FOR NORTHEAST FL
TAF SITES DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. GENERALLY VFR BUT PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE FOR CRG AND SGJ THROUGH ABOUT 17Z. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST, BUT WINDS
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, A PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR VSBY/CIGS
ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHEAST FL TAFS, WITH LIKELY EVEN LOWER TO LIFR
FOR VQQ.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLY TODAY WILL BRING
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS DO TAPER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION AS COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN. MIN RHS WILL DROP
TO 30-40 OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S
ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY
HIGH DISPERSIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-
WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 48 81 57 / 0 0 10 20
SSI 70 56 72 62 / 0 0 10 30
JAX 76 54 80 61 / 0 0 10 20
SGJ 75 60 77 63 / 0 0 20 40
GNV 80 56 83 61 / 0 0 30 20
OCF 83 59 83 62 / 0 10 40 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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