422
FXUS62 KJAX 131757
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- FROST POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HIGH RIP CURRENTS AREA BEACHES REST OF TODAY.
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULT IN A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL PAST I-95 AFTER 2-3 PM. VERY DRY ALOFT
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A FLAT
STRATOCU CLOUD OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING
AND DECENT MEAN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SFC-850 MB OF ABOUT 70 PERCENT).
THE EARLIER STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS, WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
BUT FOR REST OF TODAY, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR AND LOCALLY PARTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. LOWS
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS MORNING, BUT STILL SOME UPPER 40S
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, AND THEN 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG ELSEWHERE. THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE LATE NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL WITH SOME
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST IS
A BIT BETTER AND ANTICIPATE LOCALLY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY FROM
DUVAL COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND INLAND TO
ABOUT US HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, WE ANTICIPATE
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS
A SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT STARTS TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE FROM MARION
COUNTY EAST TO FLAGLER BEACH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MARINE
WATERS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- QUIET AND WARMER SATURDAY, THEN UNSETTLED SUNDAY & MONDAY
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SAT NIGHT
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
A WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD POP ACROSS OUR NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS A MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT UNDER BACKING WSW FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION OF
THE INCREASED MOISTURE TRAILING THE WARM FRONT AND A PREVAILING
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM
THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. A BRIEF RESPITE IN RAIN CHANCES IS FORECAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT INLAND SE GEORGIA
- INLAND FROST POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW SEASONABLE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR INLAND SE GA AND,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR FROST AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME, THE NBM HAS ABOUT A 15-
35% CHANCE OF A FREEZE FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF HOMERVILLE TO
WAYCROSS TO JESUP. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
MID-WEEK WITH INCREASING RIP CURRENT RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES WEDNESDAY
& THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 3500-4500 FT FOR THE NORTHEAST
FL TAF SITES REST OF TODAY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE
TO BE TRENDING LOWER MORE IN THE 6-12 KT RANGE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT. AFTER 05Z-06Z SATURDAY, THERE
IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS OF CIG AND VSBY FOR ALMOST
ALL TAFS BUT GENERALLY BEST FOR JAX AND VQQ. AFTER STRATUS AND
FOG DISSIPATE BY 15Z SATURDAY, VFR CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
MARINE
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY,
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY WITH
SURF UP AROUND 4 FT AT TIMES, WITH LOCAL BUOYS 41112 AND 41117
READING 4-6 FT SEAS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF ABOUT 7 SECONDS MAKING
FOR BLUSTERY SURF CONDITIONS. A LINGERING HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND MODERATE RISK
FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. MAY HAVE A MODERATE RISK BY SUNDAY FOR
ALL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 30-35% OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY, AND WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-
WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY,
WITH MINRH DROPPING TO 20-35% AREAWIDE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 81 57 83 / 0 10 20 60
SSI 56 72 62 76 / 0 10 30 60
JAX 54 80 61 85 / 0 10 20 70
SGJ 60 77 63 81 / 0 20 40 80
GNV 56 83 61 85 / 0 30 20 80
OCF 59 83 62 85 / 10 40 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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