839
FXUS62 KJAX 132344
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
744 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
- FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY
- NIGHT & EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HIGH RIP CURRENTS AREA BEACHES REST OF TODAY.
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULT IN A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL PAST I-95 AFTER 2-3 PM. VERY DRY ALOFT
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A FLAT
STRATOCU CLOUD OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING
AND DECENT MEAN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SFC-850 MB OF ABOUT 70 PERCENT).
THE EARLIER STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS, WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
BUT FOR REST OF TODAY, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR AND LOCALLY PARTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. LOWS
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS MORNING, BUT STILL SOME UPPER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, AND THEN 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE LATE NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL WITH SOME AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST IS A BIT BETTER
AND ANTICIPATE LOCALLY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY FROM DUVAL COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND INLAND TO ABOUT US HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, WE ANTICIPATE INCREASED MOISTURE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS A SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS
ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT STARTS TO DEVELOP. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL
THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE FROM MARION COUNTY EAST TO FLAGLER BEACH AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MARINE WATERS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- QUIET AND WARMER SATURDAY, THEN UNSETTLED SUNDAY & MONDAY
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SAT NIGHT
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
A WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD
POP ACROSS OUR NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES. SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT UNDER BACKING WSW FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INCREASE
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE TRAILING THE WARM FRONT
AND A PREVAILING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER
STORMS FROM THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A BRIEF RESPITE IN RAIN CHANCES IS
FORECAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT INLAND SE GEORGIA
- INLAND FROST POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW SEASONABLE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR INLAND SE GA
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.AND, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, COULD
BRING A CHANCE FOR FROST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND
PARTS OF THE THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AT
THIS TIME, THE NBM HAS ABOUT A 15- 35% CHANCE OF A FREEZE FOR
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF HOMERVILLE TO WAYCROSS TO JESUP.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS MID-WEEK WITH
INCREASING RIP CURRENT RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES WEDNESDAY &
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. FOG DEVELOP AFTER 05Z-06Z COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS FOR ALMOST ALL TAFS BUT
GENERALLY BEST FOR JAX/CRG/VQQ. AFTER STRATUS AND FOG DISSIPATE BY
15Z, VFR CLOUDS ARE LIKELY AS WINDS WILL AGAIN BE FROM THE EAST.
MARINE
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY WITH
SURF UP AROUND 4 FT AT TIMES, WITH LOCAL BUOYS 41112 AND 41117
READING 4-6 FT SEAS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF ABOUT 7 SECONDS MAKING
FOR BLUSTERY SURF CONDITIONS. A LINGERING HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND MODERATE RISK
FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. MAY HAVE A MODERATE RISK BY SUNDAY FOR
ALL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 30-35% OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY, AND WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-
WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY,
WITH MINRH DROPPING TO 20-35% AREAWIDE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 81 58 83 / 0 0 20 60
SSI 56 71 62 76 / 0 0 40 60
JAX 53 78 61 86 / 0 10 30 70
SGJ 60 76 63 83 / 0 20 50 70
GNV 56 82 61 86 / 0 30 20 80
OCF 59 83 62 86 / 10 40 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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