701
FXUS62 KJAX 140633
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY I-95 CORRIDOR
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. POTENTIAL
HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES
- FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
- RESIDUAL HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ACROSS FIRST COAST BEACHES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. HOURLY
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG FORMATION A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ELEVATED, ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SATURATION. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
COASTAL AREAS.
TODAY: MORNING FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, GENERALLY
CLEARING BY MID MORNING AROUND 10 AM EDT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
THE LOWER 80S INLAND. A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW, GENERALLY 10 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
TONIGHT: A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL FL AROUND 3 AM, AND
WILL BE AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE. AS THIS
BOUNDARY PRESSES IN THE REGION, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH OF WAYCROSS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FL EXPANDING
WARM, MOIST SSW FLOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TRAILING THE WARM FRONT AND A MORE DOMINANT GULF
SEA BREEZE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM THE HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN, A PRE-FRONTAL
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING. WITH OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EMBEDDED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG
WIND PROFILES, STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THE LINE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE
EXITING MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE NE FL COAST.
ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT INLAND SE GEORGIA
- INLAND FROST POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW SEASONABLE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR INLAND SE GA AND,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR FROST AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS MID-WEEK WITH INCREASING RIP CURRENT RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3 AM EDT WITH A LIGHT ENE WIND.
FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z-07Z COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS FOR ALMOST ALL TAFS BUT GENERALLY BEST FOR JAX/CRG/VQQ. AFTER
STRATUS AND FOG DISSIPATE BY 15Z, VFR CLOUDS ARE LIKELY AS WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE FROM THE EAST.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK MAY DEVELOP FOR ALL BEACHES BY
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 28-35% OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY, AND
WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE 80S TODAY RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND PATCHY HIGH
DISPERSIONS NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE AREA-WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY, WITH MINRH DROPPING
TO 20-35% AREAWIDE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 57 82 62 / 0 20 70 50
SSI 72 62 76 65 / 0 30 60 50
JAX 79 61 86 65 / 0 20 70 40
SGJ 76 64 83 65 / 10 30 70 50
GNV 82 61 85 65 / 10 20 70 50
OCF 82 61 85 65 / 30 20 70 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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