155
FXUS62 KJAX 141226
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
826 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TO NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
MORNING FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, GENERALLY
CLEARING BY MID MORNING AROUND 10 AM EDT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND THE LOWER 80S INLAND. A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW, GENERALLY 10 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
TONIGHT: A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL FL
AROUND 3 AM, AND WILL BE AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNRISE. AS THIS BOUNDARY PRESSES IN THE REGION, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES DEVELOPING
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH OF WAYCROSS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TO NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH,
IN ADDITION TO A MOIST FLOW WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FROM TROUGH. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WILL BE COMMON INLAND, MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S INLAND, WHILE HOLDING IN THE LOWER
40S OVER COASTAL NE FL. NOT EXPECTING A FROST MONDAY NIGHT, DUE
TO WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TUESDAY, THEN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING INLAND SE GA. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WILL BE COMMON OVER INLAND NE FL. LOWS NEAR THE COAST
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT, SO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INLAND FROST IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRETCH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FROM A
LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA
SATURDAY. AFTER BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
READINGS WILL TREND ABOVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
VLIFR CONDITIONS IN RADIATION FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
13Z AT JAX AND SSI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS BEFORE 14Z. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, BUT VFR CEILINGS OF 3,500-5,000 FEET ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 17Z, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY, A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK MAY DEVELOP FOR ALL BEACHES BY
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 28-35% OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY,
AND WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND
PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MORE
AREA-WIDE HIGH DISPERSIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE TUESDAY, WITH MINRH DROPPING TO 20-35% AREAWIDE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 57 82 62 / 0 20 70 50
SSI 72 62 76 65 / 0 30 60 50
JAX 79 61 86 65 / 0 20 70 40
SGJ 76 64 83 65 / 10 30 70 50
GNV 82 61 85 65 / 10 20 70 50
OCF 82 61 85 65 / 30 20 70 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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