935
FXUS62 KJAX 141503
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1103 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TO NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1021
MILLIBARS) SITUATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH COASTAL TROUGHING
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS. MEANWHILE, A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS (AROUND 10,000 FEET) IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS TRAVERSING THE
NORTHEAST GULF / APALACHEE BAY. OTHERWISE, ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
TO THE SOUTH OF A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 0.5
INCHES. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ELSEWHERE, WHERE PWATS WERE INCREASING TO THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH
RANGE. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE
I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS IN SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST FL EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED, WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUD COVER
AND A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 15Z RISING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR REGION AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 55-60 RANGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT,
SHARPENING THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
CREATING STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING THAT WILL
TEND TO INCREASE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER, MAINLY OVER MARION
COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL FL TODAY. OTHERWISE, A NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND ATTEMPTS TO TIGHTEN OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NOT THICKEN
APPRECIABLY OVER SOUTHEAST GA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL OTHERWISE KEEP HIGHS IN THE 75-80 RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
DUE TO COOL SHELF WATERS.
TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT, WITH DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING TO LIFT THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT /
OVERRUNNING MAY DEVELOP A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH
MOST ACTIVITY LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID
AIR MASS NEAR THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, THICKENING CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND
THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OFFSHORE THAT WILL EXPAND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TO NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH,
IN ADDITION TO A MOIST FLOW WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FROM TROUGH. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WILL BE COMMON INLAND, MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S INLAND, WHILE HOLDING IN THE LOWER
40S OVER COASTAL NE FL. NOT EXPECTING A FROST MONDAY NIGHT, DUE
TO WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TUESDAY, THEN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING INLAND SE GA. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WILL BE COMMON OVER INLAND NE FL. LOWS NEAR THE COAST
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT, SO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INLAND FROST IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRETCH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FROM A
LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA
SATURDAY. AFTER BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
READINGS WILL TREND ABOVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT VFR CEILINGS OF 3,500-5,000 FEET
ARE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AT THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 17Z,
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS ON
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR LOCAL WATERS. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
AWAY FROM OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS KEEPING CAUTION CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK MAY DEVELOP FOR ALL BEACHES BY
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- INLAND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST, AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NEARLY OVERHEAD
NEXT WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 59 82 62 / 0 10 70 50
SSI 68 63 76 65 / 0 20 60 50
JAX 78 62 86 65 / 0 10 70 40
SGJ 73 65 83 65 / 0 20 70 50
GNV 80 62 85 65 / 10 10 70 50
OCF 80 63 85 65 / 10 10 70 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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