152
FXUS62 KJAX 141834
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
234 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES.
- SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
ALONG THE I- 95 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OFFSHORE THAT WILL EXPAND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TO NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE LATE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1022
MILLIBARS) SITUATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
MEANWHILE, A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTH FL AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WAS GRADUALLY DEEPENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WAS TRAVERSING THE NORTHEAST GULF / APALACHEE BAY.
OTHERWISE, ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEPARTING
TROUGH OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, WHILE TROUGHING WAS BEGINNING
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DRY
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 0.5 INCHES. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ELSEWHERE, WHERE PWATS WERE
INCREASING TO THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. ISENTROPIC LIFT /
OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD ALONG THE
I-75 AND I-10 CORRIDORS THAT WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER WERE NOTED ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS WERE DROPPING COASTAL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 70
DEGREES AS OF 18Z, WHILE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WERE MOSTLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN TO THE 45-50 RANGE
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE 50S PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT
AROUND 60 IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT,
CREATING STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING THAT WILL
THICKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS LIFT COULD
DEVELOP A FEW SPRINKLES BENEATH THE THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT, WITH DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING TO LIFT
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS NEAR THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
ALONG THE I- 95 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OFFSHORE THAT WILL EXPAND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TO NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH,
IN ADDITION TO A MOIST FLOW WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FROM TROUGH. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WILL BE COMMON INLAND, MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A ROUND OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S INLAND, WHILE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S OVER
COASTAL NE FL. NOT EXPECTING A FROST MONDAY NIGHT, DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AT
INLAND LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TUESDAY, THEN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING INLAND SE GA. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WILL BE COMMON OVER INLAND NE FL. LOWS NEAR THE COAST
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT, SO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INLAND FROST IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRETCH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FROM A
LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA
SATURDAY. AFTER BELOW NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
READINGS WILL TREND ABOVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 07Z SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH VFR
CEILINGS OF 3,500-5,000 FEET FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 07Z AT THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OF 2,000- 3,000 FEET AT GNV AND SGJ AFTER 06Z TONIGHT,
WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. MVFR CEILINGS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS AFTER 13Z. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT SSI, WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 22Z, WITH
SPEEDS THEN DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN AROUND
5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 03Z. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AT SSI TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY 16Z.
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS ON SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR LOCAL WATERS. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
AWAY FROM OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS KEEPING CAUTION CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK IS THEN EXPECTED AT ALL
BEACHES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- INLAND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST, AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NEARLY OVERHEAD
NEXT WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 83 62 73 / 10 50 60 90
SSI 62 75 64 78 / 20 50 50 90
JAX 62 85 64 83 / 10 60 50 90
SGJ 65 82 64 81 / 20 60 60 90
GNV 62 85 64 80 / 10 70 60 100
OCF 63 85 65 81 / 10 70 50 90
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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