793
FXUS62 KJAX 150038
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES.
- SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
ALONG THE I- 95 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OFFSHORE THAT WILL EXPAND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TO NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE LATE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AT ABOUT
5-10 MPH WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FL AREA.
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHEAST GA, BUT ARE QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND INCREASED CLOUDS FOR INLAND AREAS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND STILL KEPT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. CARRIED THE PATCHY FOG INTO THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
AREAS AS WELL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS)
SITUATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STRETCHING
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE, A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS GRADUALLY DEEPENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS TRAVERSING THE NORTHEAST
GULF / APALACHEE BAY. OTHERWISE, ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, WHILE TROUGHING WAS
BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 0.5 INCHES. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ELSEWHERE, WHERE PWATS WERE INCREASING TO THE
0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A THICKER
MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD ALONG THE I-75 AND I-10 CORRIDORS THAT WAS
LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD
COVER WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WERE DROPPING COASTAL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AS OF 18Z, WHILE TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN TO THE 45-50 RANGE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE 50S PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT AROUND 60 IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT,
CREATING STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING THAT WILL
THICKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS LIFT COULD
DEVELOP A FEW SPRINKLES BENEATH THE THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT, WITH DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING TO LIFT
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS NEAR THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH, IN
ADDITION TO A MOIST FLOW WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FROM TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S WILL BE COMMON INLAND, MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A ROUND OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S INLAND, WHILE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S OVER
COASTAL NE FL. NOT EXPECTING A FROST MONDAY NIGHT, DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INLAND SE GEORGIA
- INLAND FROST TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TUESDAY, THEN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING INLAND SE GA. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WILL
BE COMMON OVER INLAND NE FL. LOWS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, SO A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD INLAND FROST IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRETCH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FROM A LOW
CENTER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA SATURDAY. AFTER BELOW NORMAL
READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, READINGS WILL TREND ABOVE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AND NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS BY 16Z SUNDAY. DUE TO
THE WARM FRONT, A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 05Z-06Z SUNDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
NEAR GNV BY ABOUT 04Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS NEAR AND AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
STARTING FOR GNV AND SGJ BY 07Z TO 10Z, AND WE CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME IFR CIGS FOR THE JAX METRO TAFS FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 13Z AND
FOR NOW SHOWED SCT008. IN GENERAL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS
AFTER 19Z SUNDAY WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS INDICATED FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ABOUT 4-8
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OR VARIABLE LATE. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
MAINLY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM EARLY
SUNDAY NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO CAUTION LEVELS ON SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK CREATING
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK IS THEN EXPECTED AT ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- INLAND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST, AND
A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NEARLY OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 84 62 73 / 30 50 60 90
SSI 62 76 64 78 / 40 50 50 90
JAX 60 86 64 83 / 10 60 50 90
SGJ 63 83 64 81 / 10 60 60 90
GNV 60 86 64 80 / 20 70 60 100
OCF 61 86 65 81 / 20 70 50 90
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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