056
FXUS62 KJAX 150507
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
107 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
I-95. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY. POTENTIAL
HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES
- FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & SUWANNEE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ALONG
THE US 301 AND I-95 CORRIDORS OF NE FL AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING: WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYERS SLIGHTLY MIXED SO ONLY PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE, ALONG WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SEA FOG ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS DEW POINT TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S.
REST OF TODAY: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH A SLUG OF
INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO NE FL WILL
INCREASE RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NE FL, WHILE AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE US
301 AND I-95 CORRIDORS OF NE FL, WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, ALONG WITH A LOWER THREAT OF
HAIL AS WELL. THE BREEZY S TO SW FLOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH EXCEPT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.75" ACROSS NE FL WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG STORM ACTIVITY.
TONIGHT: FOLLOWING THE END OF EVENING CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET OVER
INLAND AREAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS, THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE ELEVATED S TO SW FLOW
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE
- LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA, MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RAISE PWATS NEAR 1.5", ALTHOUGH WITH THE
FRONT MOVING RELATIVELY FAST, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 0.5-1.0" THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY, BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE OF
CONCERN MONDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, BUT IT WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST MONDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS 50S AREAWIDE TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT, LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 30S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST OF
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH LOW TO MID 40 ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL
DANCE AROUND OR UNDER FREEZING FOR MOST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA,
WITH CALM WINDS PROMOTING FROST DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FROST AND FREEZE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO 80S. A PERIOD OF ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TERMINALS WILL
BE PRODUCING LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE AS
CURRENT VFR CIGS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR AND LIFR CIGS IN THE 09-12Z AT ALL TAF SITES WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED AS WELL. WILL KEEP THIS CURRENT TREND IN THE FORECAST BUT
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BACK TO MAINLY VFR BY THE 15Z TIME FRAME WITH INCREASING
S-SW WINDS AT 10-12G15-18 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE 20-02Z
TIME FRAME AND WILL PLACE PREDOMINANT VFR SHRA AT THE TERMINALS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR TSRA ACTIVITY WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 30
KNOTS. RAINFALL CHANCES LESSEN IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SW WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS THIS EVENING
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK CREATING
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOCAL BEACHES ALONG WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF
2-4 FT ALONG WITH A GREATER IMPACT FROM POTENTIAL STORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEVELOPING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
MONDAY WILL KNOCK SURF DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 2-3 FT, BUT A MODERATE RISK
OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
- INLAND MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
- AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL INCREASE DISPERSION
ACROSS THE AREA, AND DISPERSION WILL REMAIN HIGH BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY WHEN WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. BEHIND
THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MINRH
VALUES BELOW 30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 63 74 33 / 40 50 90 10
SSI 74 64 75 39 / 50 50 90 20
JAX 85 65 80 37 / 60 60 90 20
SGJ 83 65 81 40 / 80 80 90 30
GNV 86 65 80 37 / 70 60 100 20
OCF 86 65 81 40 / 80 70 90 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page