148
FXUS62 KJAX 151239
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND SMALL HAIL.
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
- WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AREA-WIDE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY
ALONG THE US 301 AND I-95 CORRIDORS OF NORTHEAST FL EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OFFSHORE.
EARLY THIS MORNING: WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYERS SLIGHTLY MIXED SO ONLY PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE, ALONG WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SEA FOG ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS DEW POINT TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 60S.
REST OF TODAY: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH A
SLUG OF INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO NE
FL WILL INCREASE RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NE FL,
WHILE AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE US 301 AND I-95 CORRIDORS
OF NE FL, WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
WINDS GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, ALONG WITH A LOWER THREAT OF HAIL AS
WELL. THE BREEZY S TO SW FLOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH EXCEPT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.75"
ACROSS NE FL WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONG STORM ACTIVITY.
TONIGHT: FOLLOWING THE END OF EVENING CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET
OVER INLAND AREAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS, THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. THE ELEVATED S TO SW FLOW AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, TO INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES. DUE TO
FRONTAL TIMING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND SE GA, TO THE LOWER 80S COASTAL NE FL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS NEAR
FREEZING OVER INLAND SE GA, CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STIR THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA
TUESDAY, BUT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH,
SO WHILE IT WILL BE DRY, CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS. WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING, IT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF GNV COULD GET TO 60.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT,
AS REGION REMAINS IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL HELP HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT, BUT THE COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW
READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INLAND SE GA. WITH
LIGHTER WINDS, FROST CHANCES ARE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
COASTAL NE FL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FROST AND FREEZE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S. A PERIOD OF ONSHORE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14Z. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT SSI. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR BEFORE 15Z AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI, WHERE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE
3,000 FEET BEFORE 16Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BEFORE 18Z AT
THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPACTS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FROM AROUND 21Z
THROUGH AROUND 04Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS,
IN ADDITION TO BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WE WILL SHIFT
THESE PROB30 GROUPS TO TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AND
WILL AIM TO NARROW THE IMPACT WINDOW FOR THESE MVFR OR LOWER
IMPACTS THAT ARE LIKELY LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEPART OUR AREA BY 05Z MONDAY,
WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
BY 08Z. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
5-10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 15Z, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY THEN PREVAILING AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POSITIONED EAST
OF I-95 WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE 19Z,
SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CONCLUSION
OF THIS EVENING'S CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
5-10 KNOTS INLAND AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION
LEVELS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK
CREATING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOCAL BEACHES ALONG WITH
SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT ALONG WITH A GREATER IMPACT FROM
POTENTIAL STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEVELOPING
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WILL KNOCK SURF DOWN SLIGHTLY TO
2-3 FT, BUT A MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
- INLAND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY
- AREA OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL INCREASE DISPERSION
ACROSS THE AREA, AND DISPERSION WILL REMAIN HIGH BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY WHEN WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MINRH VALUES BELOW 30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 63 74 33 / 40 50 90 10
SSI 74 64 75 39 / 50 50 90 20
JAX 85 65 80 37 / 60 60 90 20
SGJ 83 65 81 40 / 80 80 90 30
GNV 86 65 80 37 / 70 60 100 20
OCF 86 65 81 40 / 80 70 90 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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