259
FXUS62 KJAX 151652
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1252 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDORS. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. POTENTIAL HAZARDS:
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
- WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AREA-WIDE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDORS. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OFFSHORE.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
(991 MILLIBARS) THAT WAS PIVOTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA. ALOFT...A VEERING WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH IS DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH
THAT WAS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES TOWARDS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE
REVEALED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE 650 MILLIBARS (AROUND
12,500 FEET) AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (AROUND
-13 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500 MILLIBARS), WITH A VERY DRY
TROPOSPHERE ABOVE 750 MILLIBARS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS
SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE FL PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES LOCATED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4, WHILE VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL RISING TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES. MEANWHILE, A DRIER AIR
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT, WHERE PWAT
VALUES WERE CLOSER TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GA.
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WERE GRADUALLY ERODING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH SOME SEA FOG NOTED OVER THE
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. MOSTLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I- 95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDORS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL, WHILE FAIR
SKIES PREVAILED FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND MUCH OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF WAYCROSS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AT NOON, WITH 70S
PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM AROUND 60
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE AT 16Z.
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH AN EXISTING WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER OUR AREA TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST FL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE INITIALLY TRIGGERED
BY THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL
FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES, WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN
INTERACTING WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING
NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL FL TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHWESTWARD WILL THEN SPREAD ACTIVITY TOWARDS COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP TOWARDS SUNSET. GIVEN COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE,
ALONG WITH ML CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2,000 J/KG, STORMS MAY
PULSE AND BECOME STRONG OR EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE IN THESE AREAS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
OF 40-60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER
TODAY, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS, WITH 70S EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM
JACKSONVILLE BEACH NORTHWARD.
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL
TILT TONIGHT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POWERFUL
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH FLOW ALOFT ALSO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
I-95 AND U.S.- 301 CORRIDORS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AS ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOISTURE LEVELS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STRONG BOUNDARY. A WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
- WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AREA-WIDE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, TO INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES. DUE TO
FRONTAL TIMING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND SE GA, TO THE LOWER 80S COASTAL NE FL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS NEAR
FREEZING OVER INLAND SE GA, CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STIR THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA
TUESDAY, BUT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH,
SO WHILE IT WILL BE DRY, CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS. WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING, IT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF GNV COULD GET TO 60.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT,
AS REGION REMAINS IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
FURTHER, WITH INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I10 EXPERIENCING A FREEZE.
WITH LIGHTER WINDS, FROST CHANCES ARE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT
FOR COASTAL NE FL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMING TREND LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES INLAND
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-10. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, SO FROST IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT COASTAL NE FL. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME,
WITH TEMPERATURES COMING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 20Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPACTS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
PROB30 GROUPS FROM AROUND 21Z THROUGH AROUND 04Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, IN ADDITION TO BRIEF WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WE WILL SHIFT THESE PROB30 GROUPS TO TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL AIM TO NARROW THE
IMPACT WINDOW FOR THESE MVFR OR LOWER IMPACTS THAT ARE LIKELY
LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEPART OUR AREA BY 05Z MONDAY, WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY BY 08Z. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 15Z, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY THEN PREVAILING AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. A PINNED
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POSITIONED EAST OF I-95 WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE 19Z, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THIS EVENING'S
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT 10-15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5-10 KNOTS INLAND
AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER PIVOTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS STORM'S SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE TONIGHT, CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR SHORE THIS
EVENING, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
WATERSPOUTS, AND LARGE HAIL.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS FORECAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT
OUR LOCAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATER THIS WEEK, CREATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOCAL BEACHES ALONG WITH
SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT ALONG WITH A GREATER IMPACT FROM
POTENTIAL STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEVELOPING
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WILL KNOCK SURF DOWN SLIGHTLY TO
2-3 FT, BUT A MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
- INLAND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY
- AREA OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG
FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FROST/FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY INLAND AREAS
NORTH OF I-10.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 75 33 54 / 40 90 10 0
SSI 65 76 38 54 / 70 80 10 0
JAX 67 83 37 57 / 70 80 10 0
SGJ 66 80 40 58 / 80 80 20 0
GNV 67 81 37 59 / 60 90 10 0
OCF 67 82 38 59 / 60 90 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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