757
FXUS62 KJAX 091746
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH, ROUGH SURF. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
25-35 MPH SECURE OBJECTS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY ST. JOHNS
BASIN SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. DRY & WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
- FOG POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS;
- LIFE-THREATENING SURF ZONE CONDITIONS
- COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER AREAS
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE AND GUSTS OF UP TO 30-35 MPH, WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF THE BUCKMAN BRIDGE FOR ANOTHER TIDE CYCLE.
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
MOSTLY OVER NE FL AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTS. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND TOWARDS
INLAND LOCATIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
GA AND NE FL, WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BY THE EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
INLAND SE GA, MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL, AND THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS & ELEVATED SURF FRIDAY
- LESS WIND, DRIER & WARMER INTO WEEKEND
- INLAND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
BREEZY WITH A FEW PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS FRIDAY, BUT MUCH LESS
COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVADES FROM THE
WEST AND THE LAST WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH SHALLOW GROUND MOISTURE
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG. AS TEMPS, DEW PT TEMPS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPS NEAR THE
LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
ALSO INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND
- ELEVATED TO HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER INLAND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD MID-WEEK WITH BOTH WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING AND MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON TOWARD THE DIURNAL THERMAL
TROUGH AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH DRY AND
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED, LOCAL WILDFIRE RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE INLAND FOG
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
GUSTY NE WINDS SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH NON-CONVECTIVE GUSTS OF 20-
30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z, WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
MAGNITUDES. INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA AT CRG, SGJ AND GNV BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS 18-22Z WITH VCSH AT JAX AND VQQ. SSI REMAINS DRY.
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z, THEN AFTER 06Z TRENDED TOWARD PREVAILING MVFR ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO 11-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEARING 20 KTS BUT DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH LESS PERSISTENT MVFR DECK AND WEAKER WIND MAGNITUDES.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
TODAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WINDS BEGIN
TO DECREASE SEAS WILL ALSO LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AND MORE TOWARD THE
EAST NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY,
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ELEVATED SURF AND ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
- DAILY HIGH INLAND DISPERSION
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA SATURDAY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BRIEF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
WITH MORE SUN AND MUCH LESS COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY, AN
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD BEGINS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, INCLUDING THE OKEFENOKEE NWR. NEXT WEEK, THE DRIER
AIRMASS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MINIMUM INLAND HUMIDITY OF 25-35% IS FORECAST WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES PRESSES INLAND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FOG POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (< 20%) OF AN AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM TODAY ACROSS FLAGLER, PUTNAM AND MARION
COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
DAYS OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAVE "TRAPPED" TIDAL FLOW IN THE
MIDDLE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. THIS HAS PUSHED TIDE GAUGES TO
READ AT "ACTION" LEVELS. THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE BROUGHT SOME
GAUGES TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIVER SOUTH OF
THE BUCKMAN BRIDGE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE. ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WATER LEVELS AT 1.5-1.75 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
WEAKENING WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE TRAPPED TIDAL FLOW TO
ESCAPE TO THE ATLANTIC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 80 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 73 60 75 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 59 77 57 80 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 63 75 62 77 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 57 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ132-
137-633.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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