803
FXUS62 KJAX 092309
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
709 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCAL NOREASTER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH, ROUGH SURF. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY 25-35 MPH
SECURE OBJECTS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY ST. JOHNS BASIN SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & WARMER FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
- FOG POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
- HAZARDS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE, INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST,
AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS DIMINISH A
GOOD BIT, WHILE REMAINING GUSTY AT THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS & ELEVATED SURF FRIDAY
- LESS WIND, DRIER & WARMER INTO WEEKEND
- INLAND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
BREEZY WITH A FEW PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS FRIDAY, BUT MUCH LESS
COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVADES FROM THE
WEST AND THE LAST WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH SHALLOW GROUND MOISTURE
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG. AS TEMPS, DEW PT TEMPS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPS NEAR THE
LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
ALSO INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND
- ELEVATED TO HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER INLAND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD MID-WEEK WITH BOTH WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING AND MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON TOWARD THE DIURNAL THERMAL
TROUGH AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH DRY AND
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED, LOCAL WILDFIRE RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE INLAND FOG
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
INLAND TAF SITES WILL HAVE WINDS BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN
RISE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR, BUT
A PERIOD OF MVFR IN STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
TODAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WINDS BEGIN
TO DECREASE SEAS WILL ALSO LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AND MORE TOWARD THE
EAST NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY,
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ELEVATED SURF AND ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
- DAILY HIGH INLAND DISPERSION
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA SATURDAY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BRIEF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
WITH MORE SUN AND MUCH LESS COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY, AN
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD BEGINS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, INCLUDING THE OKEFENOKEE NWR. NEXT WEEK, THE DRIER
AIRMASS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MINIMUM INLAND HUMIDITY OF 25-35% IS FORECAST WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES PRESSES INLAND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FOG POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (< 20%) OF AN AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM TODAY ACROSS FLAGLER, PUTNAM AND MARION
COUNTIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 80 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 73 60 75 / 20 10 0 0
JAX 59 77 57 80 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 63 75 62 77 / 30 10 0 0
GNV 57 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ132-
137-633.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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